Electoral Math
Reality-Based^TM Political Numbers from Nicholas Beaudrot

Aftermath | Home | Inside the New Hampshire Exit Polls

A good sign for Clark?

Here are some current (pre-debate) poll results.

[Both polls are tracking polls that take tallied results from January 20-22. ]

Drawing conclusions from polling data that's this small is difficult, as is drawing conclusions by comparing different polls, but it's possible that this is a sign of where undecided voters may gravitate. There are eight points in the ARG poll that are "missing" in the Zogby poll -- 5% fewer undecideds, and 3% worth of rounding. In addition, Dean is polling at 4% lower in the ARG poll. That's 12% to distribute, and 6 of it went to Clark, 4 to Edwards, 1 to Kerry, 1 to other (Lieberman). It's hard to figure out why those voters are leaning towards the two Southerners, but it does seem like it might be happening. A Franklin Pierce College poll supports this theory. Kerry, Dean, and Clark are running 32-18-12 among registered Democrats, but 27-13-18 among registered independents. On top of that, in their a subsample of undecided voters, the College's poll found undecideds are leaning 22-7-16, with 10% for Edwards, 10% other, and 35% completely undecided. While still within the margin of error, this suggests Clark stands to gain ground on Dean as the 10% of voting pool that is undecided moves more and more towards Clark. If, as in Iowa, New Hampshire has historically high turnout, this will probably benefit candidates in the center of the party, guys like Kerry and Clark, more than it will Dean. The large undecided percentage in the College's poll suggests there may be enough momentum for Clark to move into second place by primary day.

Again, I'm making a conjecture based on tiny variations in two different polls of 800 voters. Any number of small differences in the way the polls are conducted could contribute to this result -- changes in the hometowns of the polling sample, the percentage of independent versus registered Democrats polled, or just blind luck. But it's worth noting.

Today's Guess At The Final Results^TM: Kerry 39, Clark 24, Dean 19, Edwards 12, Other 6. With a margin of error of +- 4% :).

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Last updated by Nicholas Beaudrot on 11:30 13 February 2005