Things to watch for in tonight's debate, assuming Kerry is vulnerable as a candidate
Kerry's vulnerability on both Iraq Wars. His image of a reluctant soldier, willing to go to war when the country is ready, but only when the danger appears obvious, and willing to criticize his government when the danger isn't obvious, might play well in New England and Iowa, but might hurt him elsewhere in the country if he appears to be a fence sitter.
Kerry's CIA funding vote. This is a low-risk/high reward attack for Clark. The CIA funding vote, while perhaps the correct vote in a post-Cold War world, looks really bad right now. Any candidate who proposes increases in CIA funding, and can talk about the need for more intelligence operatives on the ground -- something the Bush Administration isn't working to hard at, can win big here.
Kerry's various "the Democrats don't need the South" comments. Look, Mr. Kerry, over the last 20 years, the Democrats have a basic failure to retain working class Americans, especially white Americans, in the South and to a lesser extent the Midwest. The Republicans are eating their lunch in this demographic, by appealing to them on social values and taxes. The Democrats really need to be a national party in order to maintain strong control of Washington. South Carolina may be a lost cause in the national election, but other states in the Deep South (Georgia, North Carolina) and Mid-South (Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee) are winnable with enough effort. And there are swing voters in Ohio and Florida who probably identify themselves as cultural Southerners. You talk about President Bush as a divisive figure, and then you proceed to ignore an entire region of the country? Good work.
The loose cannons: Howard Dean and Al Sharpton. Either of these don't have much further down to go, and they have specific agendas (Dean, for instance, has a number of campaign staffers who are apparently bearing a personal grudge against Kerry). Both may decide to attack one of the candidates who are still in it and slow down their campaign.
Clark and Kerry on race. Edwards has a good message on race -- actually, so does Dean -- that poverty doesn't know racial lines, and that minority issues are issues that everyone, even whites, need to be conscious of the need for effective racial justice. Clark talks a lot about inclusion and helping people who are less fortunate than you, but he doesn't talk specifically about race, and in this election he will need to. His experience in the army may be the best he can do. Kerry's got an endorsement from Jim Clyburn and is running TV ads with his boat-mates from Vietnam, but this may pay off as token racial.
Clark needs to play catch-up to Edwards on sounding inspiring. Hopefully by sounding a little less shrill.
Clark has been busting his butt on the campaign trail, and I worry that he's going to be tired and unprepared for tonights debate. But perhaps not.
