Electoral Math
Reality-Based^TM Political Numbers from Nicholas Beaudrot

January 2004

Ahh, the wonders of political self-delusion link
January 30

From an AP report on campaign happenings:

Sen. Joe Lieberman (news - web sites) campaigned in Delaware, perhaps his strongest state. A poll showed him trailing Kerry by 13 percentage points.

A South Carolina Debate rooting guide link
January 29

Things to watch for in tonight's debate, assuming Kerry is vulnerable as a candidate

• Kerry's vulnerability on both Iraq Wars. His image of a reluctant soldier, willing to go to war when the country is ready, but only when the danger appears obvious, and willing to criticize his government when the danger isn't obvious, might play well in New England and Iowa, but might hurt him elsewhere in the country if he appears to be a fence sitter.
• Kerry's CIA funding vote. This is a low-risk/high reward attack for Clark. The CIA funding vote, while perhaps the correct vote in a post-Cold War world, looks really bad right now. Any candidate who proposes increases in CIA funding, and can talk about the need for more intelligence operatives on the ground -- something the Bush Administration isn't working to hard at, can win big here.
• Kerry's various "the Democrats don't need the South" comments. Look, Mr. Kerry, over the last 20 years, the Democrats have a basic failure to retain working class Americans, especially white Americans, in the South and to a lesser extent the Midwest. The Republicans are eating their lunch in this demographic, by appealing to them on social values and taxes. The Democrats really need to be a national party in order to maintain strong control of Washington. South Carolina may be a lost cause in the national election, but other states in the Deep South (Georgia, North Carolina) and Mid-South (Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee) are winnable with enough effort. And there are swing voters in Ohio and Florida who probably identify themselves as cultural Southerners. You talk about President Bush as a divisive figure, and then you proceed to ignore an entire region of the country? Good work.
• The loose cannons: Howard Dean and Al Sharpton. Either of these don't have much further down to go, and they have specific agendas (Dean, for instance, has a number of campaign staffers who are apparently bearing a personal grudge against Kerry). Both may decide to attack one of the candidates who are still in it and slow down their campaign.
• Clark and Kerry on race. Edwards has a good message on race -- actually, so does Dean -- that poverty doesn't know racial lines, and that minority issues are issues that everyone, even whites, need to be conscious of the need for effective racial justice. Clark talks a lot about inclusion and helping people who are less fortunate than you, but he doesn't talk specifically about race, and in this election he will need to. His experience in the army may be the best he can do. Kerry's got an endorsement from Jim Clyburn and is running TV ads with his boat-mates from Vietnam, but this may pay off as token racial.
• Clark needs to play catch-up to Edwards on sounding inspiring. Hopefully by sounding a little less shrill.

Clark has been busting his butt on the campaign trail, and I worry that he's going to be tired and unprepared for tonights debate. But perhaps not.

Inside the New Hampshire Exit Polls link
January 28

I want to take a minute to play amateur pundit and look at the New Hampshire exit polls. There's a bunch of information here that suggests that Dean would be toast in a national election, and we are in a three horse race between Kerry, Edwards, and Clark, with Dean as a nice side show, a la Jerry Brown in 1992. I want to go through these break downs, piece by piece.

Gender: Kerry polled better with women than he did with men. Edwards polled well with men. This bodes well for Edwards in a general election.

Forgive me for ignoring the "Race" sub-component in a state that is 97% white.

Age: Dean seems to do well with Gen Xers and retirees, butnot with baby boomers or thirtysomethings. Kerry, meanwhile, polls poorly among young voters, allthough this is probably just because Dean is in the race.

Income: This is a big deal. In 1992, Paul Tsongas won the New Hampshire primary, but mostly by carrying a large majority of upper class, college educated voters. Clinton came in second, but drew respectable from both upper class and working class voters. As the primaries moved further South, Tsongas's inability to win over more middle income voters doomed him. The ability to win over the middle class is important both in the later primaries and the national election -- this is why one of Clinton's main primary themes was "the forgotten middle class", and why one of Clark's main lines is "I will never forget America's working families". . The Gore vs Bradley primary of 2000 illustrated the same phenomenon; Bradley was unable to win over working class voters.

In New Hampshire, there was no sizeable winner or loser among the middle class voters. Clark polls well with lower middle class voters ($30-50k), while Kerry did well with upper middle class voters ($50-75). Surprisingly, the image of Dean's voters as latte-drinking, volvo-driving, etc., does not pan out; he fares worse and worse as you go up the economic scale. This may be attributable to his appeal to young voters, who are either in college or in their first job and therefore probably not making too much money.

Family Finances over the last 4 years: There's nothing interesting here, except that people who's finances have improved are voting for Lieberman, while those who are hurting aren't. But it's Lieberman. Who cares.

Education: Here we see the clearest failure of Dean's "excite the base" strategy. Dean polls extremely well among college educated and those with post-graduate study. But he fairs poorly among high school graduates. Also, his decent marks for voters with "Some College" experience probably means he polls well among those going to college, but poorly among those who dropped out of college.

Sidenote: 26% of New Hampshire Democrats hold Masters, PhDs, MDs, or Law Degrees? What the heck?

Union Households: I don't know what to make of these numbers. Clark holds a slight edge among union households. I don't think this matters too much; this election is rapidly proving that labor unions do not represent a significant political force in the US.

Veterans: Interestingly, among actual veterans, the general does do better than the lieutenant. While these numbers are likely related to income and education, it indicates that Kerry's emotional stories about Vietnam play better with people who haven't been to war than among those who have. This is probably a good sign for the general election, since non-veterans greatly outnumber veterans. Note that Clark also told war stories during the New Hampshire campaign, and made them more focal as the days went on, so this may have played a part in the veteran vote.

Sidenote: 15% of New Hampshire Democrats served in the Armed Forces? What the heck?

Party identification: Another episode of Dean's failing; he polls wretchedly among self-identified Independents and Republicans. Clark, meanwhile, holds a number of Republicans, despite being quite liberal. Kerry also does fairly well among the few Republicans who voted. Lieberman was the Republican's candidate of choice, and his strategy of appealing to Independents helped him. Sadly for him, he's not actually a Democrat.

Ideology: Kerry and Edwards do well among Moderates. Clark and Edwards do well among voters who are "Somewhat conservative". Dean gets hosed in the middle. Again.

Religion: Kerry, a Catholic, pulls well from Catholics. Catholics were once a large part of Democratic support, but haven't been since 1988, when Dukakis failed to draw the Catholic vote very well. Dean fairs well among atheists, who, you will not, are still only minority of voters.

Church attendance: In another show of Edwards moderate appeal, he draws well from occasional church goers. Dean, meanwhile, draws well frm the quarter of the population that never goes to church.

Importance of debate: There's not to much to see here. Clark voters appear to want to vote for Clark regardless of how he debates, probably either because they are in the "anybody but Bush" crowd and evaluate Clark as having the best chances, or they like his qualities as a general, or they like his middle class tax cut, or whatever.

Opinion of the Bush Administration: Edwards shows well again with Moderates ... especially those who are "satisfied" with the Bush White House. Clark does as well, which means Kerry draws poorly from this demographic.

Dean's Temperament: It looks like Dean voters flocked to Kerry as a consequence of his temperament. Interestingly, Clark voters are evenly split on whether or not Dean has the right temperament.

Quick notes on Favorable/Unfavorable Ratings:

• Kerry voters have an unfavorable view of Clark. This suggests that Kerry ran a sneak attack on Clark, or that the lieutenant/general comment was played up, or that the abortion, gay rights and Michael Moore gotchas hurt him. These may not hurt him in states where the voters weren't paying attention.
• Both Edwards and Kerry have very high net favorable ratings. Everyone likes Edwards. Everyone like Edwards in Iowa too. He should really consider being Vice President.
• Lieberman and Dean are tied for the worst net favorability rating.
• New Hampshire voters love John McCain. Heck, in a McCain vs. Gore vote I might have voted for McCain. But such is life.

War In Iraq: New Hampshire Democrats did not mirror Iowa Democrats on this issue ... they disapprove much more of the War in Iraq.

Most Important Issue: Clark needs to show he is multi-dimensional -- he draws well from those who think Terrorism and the War in Iraq are the most important issues, but poorly from others. If he can show that he has a useful domestic policy, he becomes a viable candidate. Hopefully he will get a chance to talk about his domestic policy in the South Carolina debate.

A good sign for Clark? link
January 23

Here are some current (pre-debate) poll results.

[Both polls are tracking polls that take tallied results from January 20-22. ]

Drawing conclusions from polling data that's this small is difficult, as is drawing conclusions by comparing different polls, but it's possible that this is a sign of where undecided voters may gravitate. There are eight points in the ARG poll that are "missing" in the Zogby poll -- 5% fewer undecideds, and 3% worth of rounding. In addition, Dean is polling at 4% lower in the ARG poll. That's 12% to distribute, and 6 of it went to Clark, 4 to Edwards, 1 to Kerry, 1 to other (Lieberman). It's hard to figure out why those voters are leaning towards the two Southerners, but it does seem like it might be happening. A Franklin Pierce College poll supports this theory. Kerry, Dean, and Clark are running 32-18-12 among registered Democrats, but 27-13-18 among registered independents. On top of that, in their a subsample of undecided voters, the College's poll found undecideds are leaning 22-7-16, with 10% for Edwards, 10% other, and 35% completely undecided. While still within the margin of error, this suggests Clark stands to gain ground on Dean as the 10% of voting pool that is undecided moves more and more towards Clark. If, as in Iowa, New Hampshire has historically high turnout, this will probably benefit candidates in the center of the party, guys like Kerry and Clark, more than it will Dean. The large undecided percentage in the College's poll suggests there may be enough momentum for Clark to move into second place by primary day.

Again, I'm making a conjecture based on tiny variations in two different polls of 800 voters. Any number of small differences in the way the polls are conducted could contribute to this result -- changes in the hometowns of the polling sample, the percentage of independent versus registered Democrats polled, or just blind luck. But it's worth noting.

Today's Guess At The Final Results^TM: Kerry 39, Clark 24, Dean 19, Edwards 12, Other 6. With a margin of error of +- 4% :).

Aftermath link
January 20

The Deaniacs are starting to look like amateurs:

Joe Trippi is blaming his poor showing on the media, that's apparently conspiring against his campaign. Well, Joe, maybe if you realized that the media is your major outlet to the voters, you wouldn't treat them like nitwits. Republicans are now publicly stating that they want to face Howard Dean in a general election. Continuing to alienate swing voters, rather than curry favor to them, isn't going to get you any friends.

Dr. Dean: if your long term goal is to become president of the United States, you can still achieve this goal ... by immediately calling Terry McAullife, making peace with the centrist wing of the Democratic party, and running as Vice President. You still have a huge army of supporters and a lot of money. It would be a shame for all of those resources to disappear and to alienate the greeny social liberals in the party by running a Clark-Edwards ticket that doesn't have a record on the environment besides platform, and is pretty centrist on social issues. You don't have to talk about God anymore, because you'll only be appearing in lefty leaning, mostly atheist swing states like Washington, Oregon, New Mexico, and Colorado, maybe with the occasional stop in the industrial midwest. You'll get eight years to learn what it's like to be in Washington, and an issue to promote as VP that you can run on in 2012. Is this really the worst thing that could happen?

Also, drink up.

Iowans, please caucus for Dick Gephardt link
January 19

MR. RUSSERT:  A fellow man from Missouri, a supporter of yours, is coming into town tonight by the name of Chuck Berry.  Will you do the duck walk with Chuck Berry tonight?

REP. GEPHARDT:  I will do it right here if you want.

MR. RUSSERT:  Right off the set?

REP. GEPHARDT:  Right.  Give me a guitar and I'll do it.

The Washington Post countdown has this paragraph:

This afternoon, campaign officials said that Rep. Dennis Kucinich (Ohio), who has been running well behind the top four candidates in the polls, and Edward reached an agreement on caucus cooperation, washingtonpost.com's Terry Neal reported. Kucinich has asked his supporters to back Edwards in precincts where he doesn't receive the 15 percent minimum support needed to continue. Edwards has instructed his people to do the same for Kucinich.

Hold your breath everyone. The wild ride begins.

Or not ... link
January 15

More on the multi billion dollar question. link
January 12

I don't know what to make of a magazine that endorses Joe Lieberman for the Democratic candidacy, but The New Republic has written a very cogent analysis of Dean's presidential viability.

"But the case for Dean needn't be that his liabilities are nonexistent; it is that, relative to his rivals, Dean's assets are stronger than his liabilities. Geographically speaking, the South may be a lost cause for any Democrat. But, between his fluent Spanish and popularity with high-tech workers, Dean could have unusually strong appeal in the Southwest and Pacific Northwest; polls already show he is popular in these areas."

Repeat after me: Arizona wins the election. Arizona wins the election ...

Though of course, he has to get there first. Meanwhile, Dick "undisclosed location" Cheney's West Coast Fundraising Tour includes stops in the following states:

• Colorado
• Arizona
• Washington
• Oregon
• California

Cleverly, this list only includes states that Bush stands a chance of either winning or losing (New Mexico, for instance, is not on the list, since despite the latest immigration plan, he's unlikely to be popular with that demographic). I fear the folks running the Bush campaign may just be flat-out smarter than the splintered wisdom of the Democrats.

Bad News Friday link
January 9

Like most Administrations before it, the Bush Administration has made a habit of trying to release bad news on Fridays. Not surprisingly, people are less likely to watch the nightly news on Friday, and a story has to have enough life to last until the Monday paper in order to get noticed.

Today, we learn that despite occasional rosy news about the state of the economy, few new jobs are being added. But some chunk of America won't notice.

... but the fire is so delightful link
January 6

Despite being the northernmost major city in the lower 48, it rarely snows in Seattle. Today, however, is an exception.

Last updated by Nicholas Beaudrot on 11:30 13 February 2005