Reality-BasedTM Political Numbers from Nicholas Beaudrot
Electoral Math
Reality-BasedTM Political Numbers from Nicholas Beaudrot
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Seems to be "don't attack your opponents before the weekend".
In Iowa, Dean and Gephardt spent the weekend before the caucus screaming at each other for their positions on free trade, the Iraq War, health care, and probably any number of things. Both campaigns plummeted in the polls, while Edwards and Kerry, who had much more positive messages, rose sharply. The lesson seems to be that being on the attack for the entire weekend gives many voters a chance to see you as a bad guy, without having a chance to hear what you have to say.
Of course, many things are different now from the way things were in Iowa. For one, in Iowa, Kerry ran a direct mail ad attacking Dean and Gephardt, pointing out that they both wanted to repeal the entire Bush tax cut. Kerry, meanwhile, wants to preserve the tax cut for families that make less than $200,000. This "stealth attack" went largely unreported in the national press. Likewise, in New Hampshire, Kerry pulled the same trick in attacking Clark.
Over the weekend, Edwards and Kerry started taking small jabs at each other -- Edwards attacking Kerry on free trade, Kerry attacking Edwards inexperience
It would be nice if the candidates could have a real debate where they challenged each other on
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updated by Nicholas Beaudrot on 11:30 13 February 2005
