Electoral Math
Reality-Based^TM Political Numbers from Nicholas Beaudrot

The lesson from Iowa ... | Home | Salon could use a dose of reality.

Exit Poll Mania

I was going to write a long article examining the exit polls from various states -- mostly Virginia, Arizona, Tennessee, and Missouri -- that showed that Kerry might have problems in a national election. Essentially, Democratics who look more like Republicans: self-reporting conservatives, independents, weekly church goers, and people who thought taxes were the most important issue, -- tended to lean towards Clark or Edwards. However, Will Saletan has basically taken then words out of my mouth. There are lots of voters out there in the primary who say they will be dissatisfied if Kerry wins the nomination. And these are not Dean-or-Green types: these are people who want Clark or Edwards to be president, and who are more likely to vote Republican if they don't get their guy.

Armchair pollsters may be also be interested in the exit polls from the 2000 election, which suggest that the best way for Bush to win will be to rachet up the number of people who think that foreign policy is the most important issue, to hope that their candidate attacks less, and to somehow appear as someone who is "trustworthy" and "cares people like me" again. Also, it's worth noting voters are actually split about 20/50/30 along liberal vs moderate vs conservative identification, rather than the 20/40/40 number that is usually given.

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Last updated by Nicholas Beaudrot on 11:30 13 February 2005