Reality-BasedTM Political Numbers from Nicholas Beaudrot
Electoral Math
Reality-BasedTM Political Numbers from Nicholas Beaudrot
Exit Poll Mania | Home | Just how bad things are for Bush, or, Evan Bayh for Vice President
Salon is running an article on Kerry's Southern strategy, based largely on surrounding himself with war heroes, as a pre-emptive challenge to attacks on his patriotism. There's this quote:
Reality tells another story. Even among Democratic primary voters -- a voting bloc almost entirely sure to vote against Bush in the national election -- Virginia exit polls show Edwards is the candidate who fares better among white voters than among non-whites, while Kerry trounces him among non-whites. Tennessee exit polls show a similar story. Things will not get easier for Senator Kerry in the general election.Kerry's supporters, at least, see themselves making inroads into typically solid GOP voting blocs like Southern whites and veterans ...
Kerry might ... might, make some marginal inroads by talking about his days in 'Nam, but he can make even more inroads by putting Edwards on the VP ticket. Picking up the minority vote will not be a problem in the general election: picking up working class white voters, and to a lesser extent upper middle class white voters, will.
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updated by Nicholas Beaudrot on 11:30 13 February 2005
