Electoral Math
Reality-Based^TM Political Numbers from Nicholas Beaudrot

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Bush on the defensive?

A look at Bush's travel schedule suggests that Bush is very much on the defensive at the moment. For the most part, Bush's recent travel schedule includes trips to states that he won, not lost, in 2000. Ignoring the "follow that Democrat" trips, Bush has made recent appearances Missouri, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Louisiana. Laura Bush is on a three day fund-raising bender that takes her to Nevada, Arkansas, and California. Ignoring California (since the trip just goes there to extract money, more than get publicity), five of the remaining six states on this list were in the Bush column in the last election. The only state that went to Gore, Pennsylvania, is Bush's most frequent rest stop, other than Crawford, Texas, so presumably the Bush team believes that this state is the best investment of their time. We're still in the "too early to tell" stages of things, but it really does look like Bush is spending more time on the defensive than on the offensive at the moment. (It should be noted that the Bush team is sending his emissaries on offense. Economy-types are in Washington and Oregon to tell us how great outsourcing is for the economy). This bodes well for November, as Kerry can battle Bush in his territory, and not the other way around.

To be honest, I don't understand who thought that the "follow that Democrat" trips were a good idea. They look like nothing but campaign events, so while they may have a decent innoculative effect in the individual states, they look positively wretched in the national press, and all he's got to say is that the Democrats want to raise taxes. It is telling that he stopped playing the game after the February 3rd primaries.

SurveyUSA has some frustrating news. In a poll of registered voters, Bush leads Kerry by 8% in Arizona, with 4% undecided--thus probably a 9% or 10% difference. This is a serious gap, and unless turnout seriously does not match the registration numbers, it seems difficult to imagine the Democrats making up that gap. Cross Janet Napolitano off the list of potential Vice Presidents.

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Last updated by Nicholas Beaudrot on 11:30 13 February 2005