Will Ralph Nader get on the ballot?

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Will Ralph Nader get on the ballot?

Here is a headline I don't understand:

"Kerry Seeks to Relax GOP Hold on South: Campaign Courts States Clinton Carried Twice"

There are exactly three such states: Arkansas (Clinton's home state), Tennessee (Gore's home state) and Louisiana. Clearly, the Clinton-Gore ticket helped bring home Arkansas, although given Clinton's 18 point win, there's a reasonable shot he can win there. Gore only carried Tennessee by 5 points in 1992 and 3 points in 2000, so it is no sure bet.

That leaves Louisiana as the only state where Kerry stands a chance, based on past history. But to do that, he's got to play up his "sportsman" image, get everyone to understand the deal on gay rights, tap into employment angst, and for the love of Lithuania, spend time somewhere other than the big cities. Go to Slidell, go to Baton Rouge, go to Lafayette ... go somewhere other than the hedonist metropolis of New Orleans!

Ralph Nader told Democrats that they should "relax and rejoice" that he's running for President. Given that he's polling above 5%, I'm worried that he doesn't understand what's going on. Remember that in 2000, with a boring candidate and unenergized Democratic base, Nader had to scratch and claw in order to get on the ballot. He only made it onto the ballot in 43 states. This time, he's not running as part of the Green party, so he will have an even harder time getting on the ballot. What, I asked, are Nader's chances of getting on the ballot? I dug up the Reform Institute's ballot access requirement scorecard, which has signature and fee requirements for candidacy. Then I lined this up with the 2000 election results to figure out where Nader is going to get on the ballot. Of course, just because you voted for Nader doesn't mean you're going to sign a ballot petiton for him. What we really want to know is the percentage of die-hard, we-hate-the-system Nader voters. To do this, I looked up percentage of votes Nader received when he appeared as a write-in, versus when he appeared on the ballot, and compared neighboring states.

Nader was not on the ballot in Georgia, where he got 0.5% of the vote. He got 1.6% in Florida, 1.45 in South Carolina, 0.95% in Tennessee, and 1.1% in Alabama.
Nader was not on the ballot in Indiana, where he got 0.8% of the vote. He got 2.5% in Ohio, 2.0% in Michigan, 2.1% in Illinois, and 1.5% in Kentucky.
Nader wasn't on the ballot in Wyoming, and got 2.1% of the vote on write-ins. He got 5.9% in Montana, 3.5% in Nebraska, 4.7% in Utah, and 5.3% in Colorado (he was also a write-in in Idaho, and had no vote count in South Dakota).
Nader wasn't on the ballot in Idaho, where he got 2.1% of the vote. He got 5.9% in Montana, 4.7% in Utah, 5.0% in Oregon, 4.1% in Washington, and 2.5% in Nevada (he was also a write-in in Wyoming).

Nader was not on the ballot and received no count in South Dakota, Oklahoma, and North Carolina, so I can't really look at those vote totals. But in each of these states, there is a clear pattern. We can see that the die-hard support for Nader probably amount 25-40% his voters; these are dyed-in-the-wool Greenies. Let's use these voters as a base, and see what the chances are that Nader will get on the ballot. I'll stick to key swing states; if Nader gets on the ballot in Vermont and Texas, well, bully for him.

Nader needs 94,023 signatures in order to get on the ballot in Florida. He got 97,488 votes in Florida, where he was on the ballot. I find it extremely unlikely that all those voters are going to sign a petition to have him ruin the election again; I think they've all learned their lesson.
Nader needs 3,000 signatures to get on the ballot in New Hampshire. He got 22,198 votes there in 2000. So there's a very good chance he'll get on the ballot there.
Nader needs only 5,000 autographs to get on the ballot in Ohio. He got 117,857 last time, so it's almost certain that he'll get on the ballot there.
Nader needs 25,000 signatures in Pennsylvania. He got 103,392 votes, so he has a good but not great chance of getting on the ballot.
Nader needs only 1,500 signatures in Iowa, where he got 29,374 votes.

And so on, and so forth. All totalled, here are my assesments of where Nader will appear on the ballot.

Very unlikely (40% or more of Nader voters sign petition): Florida, New Mexico, West Virginia
Somewhat unlikely (25-40% of Nader voters sign petition): Arizona, Michigan, Missouri, Oregon, Nevada
Somewhat likely (10-25% of Nader voters sign petition): New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Virginia
Very likely (10% or less of Nader voters sign petition): Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, Minnesota, Ohio, Washington, Wisconsin

And here's a trusty map (the darker the green, the more likely Nader is to make it onto the ballot):

$A map of Ralph Nader's odds for ballot access.$

Of course, it only takes a few thousand nasty Republicans engaged in sabotage in order to get him on the ballot in several states. Most telling, Nader is starting his signature drive in Texas. This, to me, is a clear sign that Nader isn't going to torpedo the election in key swing states. But perhaps I am being optimistic.

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Last updated by Nicholas Beaudrot on 05:28 16 February 2005
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