Electoral Math
Reality-Based^TM Political Numbers from Nicholas Beaudrot

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State-by-state joblessness

Today, the AP has published state-by-state unemployment rates for February. Let's look at the unemployment change in swing states:

• Increase: AZ, AR, FL, ME, MN, MO, NH, WV, WI, TN  
• Constant: IA, MI
• Decrease: NV, NM, OH, OR, PA, WA, LA, CO, VA

[Why do I have 20 states, when everyone else has 17? Because I'm taking a wider view of the definition of "swing" states. In practice, WA, ME, CO, and VA are probably not going to be in play.]

If you do nothing but look at the change in employment rate, assuming that states not on the standard swing list will stay where they are, Kerry wins the election 290-248. That's phenomenal, especially when you consider that Bush carries both Ohio and Pennsylvania in this scenario. Picking up one of those two large battleground states would seal the election easily.

Update: the March employment numbers show an upward revision of the January and February numbers. Still, I think the change in unemployment is an important figure.

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Last updated by Nicholas Beaudrot on 05:28 16 February 2005