Electoral Math
Reality-Based^TM Political Numbers from Nicholas Beaudrot

January 2005

Oy link
January 30
Now Playing: Dixie Chicks, "Cold Day in July"

I'll just say that the time between April 2004 and November 2004 was not the greatest time in my life. Perhaps I'll write more about that later.

For now, let us continue ...

Since today is something resembling "Iraqi Freedom Day", the right-wing portion of the blogosphere is preening about, baiting the center-left side because not everyone has run a post praising the Wonders of the Free Election. Now, I love Free Elections as much as the next guy, let's take stock of the entire day's news from Iraq:

• Currently there are 44 reported Iraqi deaths at polling places.
• So far, there has already been one reported US casualty. DoD reports sometimes take a few days, so we'll review this number.
• Four provinces didn't vote, right? There were plenty of reports to that effect before the elections, but what actually happened?
• Other notes from today's Iraq news include an inspector general's report that someone lost track of nine billion dollars.

Look at that! It's Another Day In Iraq, shoddy security and infrastructure and all. The only change is that today, millions of people are running into the streets and voting. In and of itself, the vote will likely have great symbolic value. But if the new government fails to bring about change in Iraq, that symbolic value will fade and unrest will grow. This isn't rocket science; take a look at president Lula's problems in Brazil. Despite tremendous success at strengthening Brazil's hand in internation trade, Lula still faces non-trivial resentment for failing to cure economic distress quickly enough. Secretary Rice made one of the most appropriate statements the important subject:

Of course, there are many, many difficult days ahead. But this has been an extraordinary day so far for the Iraqi people

If Iraqis believe that the new government is in fact willing and able to address the security situation, and that new government does the ... I hate to say it ... hard work to crack down on terrorism and corrruption in the reconstruction process, then today's voting will turn out to be a sign of progress. If the new boss turns to be the same as the old boss, and the security situation hobbles along as it does today, then we've simply changed the names at the top of some letterhead.

The worst possible outcome is one that no one has mentioned today. Suppose Iraqis elect the next Slovadan Milosevic, who decides to exterminate or otherwise oppress the Sunni minority. What should the US policy be in that case?

On a lighter note, this AP article has a great "man-on-the-street" quote:

"I don't have a job. I hope the new government will give me a job," said one voter, Rashi Ayash, 50, a former lieutenant colonel in the Iraqi force.

Commie.

Domestically, the election will probably bring Bush job approval back from its 44% trough at the Inauguration.Though, as we have seen, a fresh round of attacks in Iraq would likely end the current good will. And it's not like the elections will generate fresh political capital for him to privatize social security.

Last updated by Nicholas Beaudrot on 07:46 13 February 2005