Electoral Math
Reality-Based^TM Political Numbers from Nicholas Beaudrot

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Karl Rove's fuzzy math, part #869
Now playing: Ms Jade, "Dead Wrong"

Large portions of the center-left blogosphere are already working very hard to debunk the numbers behind Bush's Social Security unreform. Suffice it to say that as with most of the numbers coming out of the White House, they're a pack of lies. First, long term imbalance in Social Security can be fixed with small changes; say, slightly lowering benefits for early retirees, slightly raising the retirement age, slighty raising taxes, etc. Second, social security benefits do not suddenly dissapear in 2042; at that point the surplus reaches zero and benefits drop to 80% of current law, which is still higher than current benefits. I refer you to any of the wise-men on center-left or left-left economics found on my home page, or Paul Krugman, or any number of other sources like the Center for American Progress, to find criticism of Bush's so-called "arithmetic".

But enough on the "finances" of Social Security. Let's get down to the politics of the situation. For reference take a look at the 2004 CNN exit polls. Note that these are the unadjusted exit polls which give Bush an overly optimistic share of the Hispanic/Latino vote; his true figure was somewhere between 33 and 40 percent. But there what we've got to work with; at most, the error affects results by a percentage point.

• Bush has said, very clearly, that workers over 55 will not be affected. The hope is that this promise will "buy off" seniors and prevent them from revolting against benefit cuts.
• Bush keeps tailoring his program "younger workers". There is very little effort to target those in between ages 30 and 55.

In Bush-world, the "winners" under the Bush plan are those over 55, and those under 30. The biggest losers are those just under the cutoff of 55. Also, in the real world, Bush plan is a wretched deal for the under-30 crowd. Let's look at how age affected voting patterns in the past election:

We can interpolate the 55+ vote to be roughly 53-47 for Bush. In a non-presidential year, the voting universe gets noticeably older, which is why its so important for Bush to appease seniors, and so important for Democrats to persuade them.

Still, the baby boomers are the largest voting block. What's more, the younger baby boomers, those between 45 and 55, are getting a terrible deal. These folks have already pre-paid some of their retirement thanks to the 1980s Greenspan Commission. Now they're getting a benefit cut; or rather, getting a benefit cut would be required to avoid massive borrowing.

In terms of prioritizing communication on Social Security, its worth targeting these groups, in order:

• Ages 45-55, particularly whites age 45-55 whose household income is under the payroll tax (today, somewhere between $80K and $90K). The Bush plan puts the screws to this age bracket in a major way.
• Ages 55+. Seniors are still the largest voting bloc, so they get priority over the yough vote. In this case it will be important to persuade seniors on grounds other than pure material grounds. One option is to attack the huge amount of debt the Bush plan will add to the deficit. Another option is to criticize the president for not addressing Medicare, whose finances are in much worse shape. Another is to make the moral argument that cutting benefits is the wrong direction for the country. Economists have a saying that we forget the mistakes our grandparents made; this is certainly true in the case of Social Security unreform.
• Ages 18-30. This is the voting bloc most skeptical that Social Security will last long enough for them. It's not true, but it's important to convince them that that's the case. Democrats must keep young voters in the fold. This will not be hard; the President is doing plenty that young voters disapprove of. It's unclear whether or not the new voters from the 2004 election will. These voters voted Democratic by a 53-46 margin. If half of them show up, then they will represent a 2-3% swing for the Democrats, which could be enough to turn several seats.

It will only take a small change in public opinion to turn the tide against the GOP. And the public already opposes what they have heard of the Bush plan. We just have to make sure it stays that way.

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Last updated by Nicholas Beaudrot on 05:27 16 February 2005