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Thanks, but no thanks

Guest-blogging for Ezra Klein, Daniel A. Munz (of New Haven State University) licks his chops at the idea of a Senate race between Maryland Lt. Governor Michael Steele, who is one of the few elected African-American Republicans in the country (and perhaps the only one elected to a statewide office), and former congressman and NAACP president Kweisi (often misspelled Kwesi) Mfume. Munz seems to think that this would be a genuine intellectual battle between the Democratic party's economic message and Republican social conservatism, and provide a test to see if the GOP social message succeeds in pulling some black support away from the Democratic party.

Allow me to count some of the ways in which this race would be a bad idea:

• Munz thinks that Mfume's attempts to moderate his image will be successful. It would not take much research to dig up pictures of Mfume wearing a daishiki, or making seemingly outlandish statements on talk radio, or enagaging in numerous forms of race-baiting. He would be unable to run away from his record as a congressman.   Steele, meanwhile, would get to talk about his service as Lieutenant Governor, a position that doesn't really require him to take a stand on anything unpopular.
• Mfume represented Maryland's 7th Congressional District, which includes downtown and westside Baltimore, plus what appears to be a bit of the few suburbs. His natural base consists entirely of voters who already vote for Democrats, so he has no real cushion against a successful attack that pulls swing voters away from him.
• While it might be an interesting test of the Republican social conservative message, it's not good electoral politics for either party to put too much faith in the power of the black vote. The population of Maryland is still 62.1% non-Hispanic white. In a Steele-Mfume matchup, white voters would be asked to choose between one African-American candidate who represents an organization which "thoroughly embodies the old-school coalition that blacks have with the Democratic Party" and an African-American who doesn't. The GOP will put tremendous pressure on white voters to support the candidate who does not have such obvious ties to the black community. Mfume will be associated with affirmative-action, inner-city Baltimore crime, and any other number of boogeymen for the sole purpose of frightening white voters. It would be Buchanan's positive polarization at its most effective.

In short, the Republican party would portray Mfume as "a black man's black man" while holding up Steele as "everyone's black man", in an effort to woo white voters away from Democrats. I'm not at all saying that this is true in any sense, but it would be difficult if not impossible for Mfume to overcome this image.

Munz wants to see this race because, if Mfume were to win, it would end to the notion that the Democratic party take black voters for granted. That certainly would happen, and I would love to see that piece of conventional wisdom be put to death once and for all. On the other hand, if Steele were to win, it would usher in a new round of stories about how there were suddenly black Republicans and that if the GOP continues to make gains among African-Americans it will spell disaster for the Democratic party. I think we can pick a better standard bearer for this fight (someone like, say, Artur Davis) than Mr. Mfume.

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Last updated by Nicholas Beaudrot on 07:14 26 March 2005