Electoral Math
Reality-BasedTM Political Numbers from Nicholas Beaudrot
UK Election Wrap-Up, Part 2 | Home | Duty calls
This Week in Blogs: my contribution to the effort to subvert the dominant link hierarchy:
Economist Donald Ratajczak, who is much smarter than I am and has a PhD and several awards for his economic forecasting to show for it, displays an awful lot of wishful thinking in his latest Economic Outlook:
However, even the best investment of that surplus will not fund all the promised benefits. Either benefits must be cut (by lowering the payout or delaying the retirement age) or funding must be increased. When will the President show leadership in outlining a program that really will restore the soundness of social security?
Are we starting a pool? If so, I'm going to put my money on "never". The modern Republican party has shown very little interest in policy and an awful lot of interest in rewarding campaign contributors and scoring political points. The Bush Social Security pseudo-plan is the latest in this long line that includes the energy bill, placing the Iraq War vote before the midterm elections, criticism of NATO's intervention in Kosovo, Monica Lewinsky, shutting down the government, filibustering the Clinton health care plan, and Whitewater.
Ratajczak also swallows the right-wing claim that promised benefits exceed projected revenues and that it's finances are getting worse, when in fact they're getting better. A shortfall exists in Social Security's financing only if you assume the trustee's projections of economic growth, immigration, and life expectancy are accurate. What's more, the media focus on the medium-cost projection overstates social-security's long term fiscal health; historically, the low-cost projection, which forecasts no trust fund shortfall, has been significantly more accurate.
On a separate note, has the esteemed Mr. Ratajczak tried to take Dean Baker's "no economist left behind" test?
| | technorati