Kaboom! All other political debate has taken a back burner to Bill Frist entering the launch code sequences for phase one of the nuclear option.

My hunch is that this goes down 49-51, with all Democrats (+Jeffords), Chafee, McCain, Snowe, Collins and Specter all likely to vote against. That leaves Democrats needing to get one more vote from the handful of moderates and mavericks: I suspect one of them will give in, probably a senator old enough to know he or she won't ever run for President, and who has seen control of the Senate change hands four or five times. Or one of the senators who would like to quietly sabotage the Frist '08 campaign.

A razor-thin loss probably takes the blame off of Frist for being unable to corral Republicans, and instead allows him to focus on campaigning against vulnerable Democrats, most notably the Red State Nelsons, whose home states are both Bush voting and overwhelmingly pro-life.