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The Connector Conspiracy | Home | The Great Feebate Debate, Part Eight

Public Opinion on Reproductive Rights
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As the debate around John G. Roberts coagulates, I was stunned by this bit of polling information (Full Study here (PDF)). Sixty percent of the public can't figure out which party is the pro-life party and which one is the pro-choice party? Have both parties gotten really good at hiding this bit of information?

Regardless, polling data points out that Democrats are on the right side of this issue, and if Roe is in fact threatened, you go to the mattresses for Roe -- like I said before. The spectre of criminalizing ordinary women¹ will make a whole lot of voters pro-choice, and in a hurry. Take a look at this series from this Harris poll:

In general, do you favor permitting a woman who wants one to have an abortion in all circumstances, some circumstances, or no circumstances?

	All Circumstances	Some Circumstances	No Circumstances
1985	26	53	20
1992	29	54	14
1992	34	52	11
1993	30	55	14
1996	25	53	19

There are many other series that support this thesis. Here's another other big one, from the University of Michigan:

Which one of the opinions on this page best agrees with your view? (1) By law, abortion should never be permitted; (2) The law should permit abortion only in cases of rape, incest, or when the woman’s life is in danger; (3) The law should permit abortion for reasons other than rape, incest, or danger the woman’s life, but only after the need for the abortion has been clearly established; or (4) By law, a woman should always be able to obtain an abortion as a matter of personal choice.

	Never Permitted	Only in Cases of Rape, Incest, or Danger	Clear Need	Always as Personal Choice
1980	11	32	18	35
1982	13	30	19	35
1984	13	29	19	35
1986	13	28	18	38
1988	12	33	18	35
1990	12	33	14	40
1992	10	28	14	46
1994	12	30	14	42
1996	12	29	16	42

Now, both of these series stop about ten years in the past, so public opinion may have shifted a bit, especially given the paucity of prominent politicians advocating for the sound practice of making abortion safe, legal, and rare. The Time/CNN figures (back when CNN and Time did polling together), show the "illegal in all circumstances" number creeping back from the its low around 10-12% to 17%, and the "always a personal choice" figure dropping from it's 1992 election year high of 49% to as low as 35%. But given that opinion has changed before, there's no reason to think that it wouldn't change again with sufficient prodding. And turning ambivalent voters into pro-choice voters will make many, many, more Democrats.

[1] $1 to Amanda

Update: Welcome TPMCafe readers! And any time the site owners want to add functionality to edit existing posts, it would be really nice for those of us who don't proofread enough.

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Last updated by Nicholas Beaudrot on 12:34 20 July 2005