Electoral Math
Reality-Based^TM Political Numbers from Nicholas Beaudrot

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Firings and Hirings
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Some polling and focus grouping from Democracy Corps gives some insight in to who exactly has been souring on the GOP. The primary gains have been among rural voters, non-evangelical Christians, and post-graduate degree holders. However, focus grouping shows that rural and small town America may have fired the Republicans, but are not yet interested in hiring Democrats. These data fit well with the results from the Hackett-Schmidt election, which shows both low turnout in the extremely rural counties and a hefty swing towards the Democratic party.

Frustratingly, after explaining to us how much importance rural voters attach to cultural signifiers, Democracy Corps then goes on to list a series of policy issues . With the exception of veterans' benefits, which is clearly strikes the psyche on an emotional level, and perhaps adding some ethics reform to eliminate the "Culture of Corruption" I am skeptical that further demagoguery of the pharmaceutical industry or proposing childhood obesity testing at public schools or dotting the Midwest with windmills will overcome opposition to abortion or support for school prayer and display of the Ten Commandments.

At the very least, this means it's time to find some gun-totin', church-goin Democrats. Brian Schweitzer and Paul Hackett demonstrate you can still succeed while being pro-choice and pro-gay rights and still win. But in less libertarian parts of the country -- Nebraska, South Dakota, much of the South -- it may mean the path to victory requires a pro-life candidate here and there, or at least spending time talking about how to reduce the abortion rate.

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Last updated by Nicholas Beaudrot on 06:54 11 August 2005