Reality-BasedTM Political Numbers from Nicholas Beaudrot
Electoral Math
Reality-BasedTM Political Numbers from Nicholas Beaudrot
So I hear there's a guy named Tom DeLay, and he's an important figure of sorts, and he's been indicted on charges of conspiracy to commit election fraud in the state of Texas.
I believe the word for the feeling I'm experience is Schadenfreude.
Of course, the basic corruption of GOP policy and politics doesn't end with DeLay, it starts there. His replacement, Roy Blunt (D-MO), is just as beholden to the demands of big business, just as intolerant of debate on the House floor, and just as interested in building narrow, partisan interest over broad, national interest. The face of the House may have changed, but its business has changed very little.
While we're on the subject of ethics and quasi-corruption (via kos), the Supreme Court is ready to hear challenges to Buckley v. Valeo, the landmark "money is speech" ruling that outlaws spending limits (one can enact de-facto limits by providing candidates with matching funds if they agree to spending limits, which is what the Presidential Primary system used to do, before George W. Bush, Howard Dean, and John Kerry all decided not to abide by spending limits).
Of course, spending limits are quite often counter productive. If I'm running for Congress, and I'm not allowed to spend any more money, I'm going to go find my friends, tell them to form a shadowy 527, pump money into that organization, and run "issue ads" there. Or, worse, someone who's not directly affiliated with my campaign, like the teachers' union or a small business organization, is going to run "issue ads" on my behalf but without my knowledge. What if I didn't want their support?
Before Mayor Nickels starts handing out candy, and City Council candidates start promising to use our budget surplus on different flavors of candy, we really need to take a step back and understand the origins our good luck. Why did end up with more money than we thought we'd have? Did we use a conservative revenue estimate rather than an aggressive estimate? Is it all Boeing? Did lots of seattlites sell or refinance their homes? Are we likely to continue to see sustained revenue increases, or will revenues return to expected levels next year?
Spending the money on one-time projects like school renovations and road paving sounds like a good plan. Spending it on new hires for the city government, without knowing if the surplus is due to a one-time surge in the economy or part of a continuing boom, doesn't.
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updated by Nicholas Beaudrot on 07:14 29 September 2005
