What to make of the Kaine-Kilgore race
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Tim Kaine now leads Jerry Kilgore in every poll that's been taken in the past two weeks. Before we start building shrines to Mark Warner, let's take a moment to consider the sequence of events that got us to this situation:
Mark Warner won the 2001 Governor's election by spending huge sums of his own money, largely in rural Southwest Virginia. He promised not to increase gun ownership restrictions and complained about the lack of fiscal responsibility in the previous Governor's administration.
As Governor, Warner spent two years cutting spending from the state budget, gained a few seats in the Virginia House of Delegates, then passed a tax reform budget that balanced the budget while paying for several projects like road improvements and a new four-year university in Southwest Virginia. He has continued to emphasize recruiting business to Southwest Virginia.
Warner has a stratospheric job approval rating, approaching 80% in some polls. The Democratic party nominates his Lieutenant Governor, Tim Kaine, for the governorship.
The state Republican party nominates Jerry Kilgore, the current attorney general and native Southwest Virginian. The Virginia GOP neutralizes the large advantage that the Warner legacy might have had in the region. Early polls show Kilgore leading Tim Kaine by anywhere between 6 and 10 points. Interestingly, Kilgore opposed the budget package proposed by the Warner administration.
Kaine's early ads prominintley feature his work as a "Christian missionary", and he makes his faith and family life a large part of his campaign.
After weak performances in the debates, Kaine pulls into a virtual dead-heat with Kilgore, with polls showing either a tied race, or a small lead for Kilgore.
Kilgore goes on the office with a nasty, Willie Horton-esque ad highlighting Kaine's personal opposition to the death penalty. Kaine had previously run ads in which he stated he would carry out death sentences.
Kaine responds with a good-but-not-great ad where he restates his responsibility to carry out death sentences. He the puts up a "cut out the nonsense" ad featuring all of the editorials that called the death penalty ads unfair.
The death penalty ad backfires, and polls show Kaine with a small lead. Kaine brings out the closer -- ads featuring Kaine working together with Mark Warner -- and appears to have all the positive momentum going into election day.
We know that negative ads usually work. So, why did they not work in this case? I'll explore that in my next post.
