Electoral Math
Reality-Based^TM Political Numbers from Nicholas Beaudrot

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More Tipping Point
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Over at MyDD, Jonathan Singer points out that Jim Kolbe's district is imminently winnable, and that at this point in the election cycle in 1994, only nine House Democrats had announced their retirements (at present, five House Republicans have announced theirs), plus nine other members leaving their seats in order to run for higher office. So there is still a good chance that during the next quarter, we will see another half dozen or so retirements, perhaps from moderate districts, further increasing the chances of a Democratic landslide.

Also worth noting, Democratic representation in DC is very, very, calcified, with very little turnover in the House of Representatives. Republican turnover is low by historical standards, but not quite as low as Democratic turnover. Interestingly, we also live in a time where Supreme Court turnover is low by historical standards, so perhaps there's just something in the air.

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Last updated by Nicholas Beaudrot on 08:55 29 November 2005