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Reality-Based^TM Political Numbers from Nicholas Beaudrot

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Strategy vs Tactics

My vision on this subject is blurred by the fog of campaigning, but contra the Ethical Werewolf, the Fighting Dems are more likely to convey a tactical advantage than a strategic one. That is, they will generate increased Democratic support in the districts where they're running, but won't immediately lead to a broader increase in Democratic party identification elsewhere.

One could imagine scenarios where the Fighting Dems did lead to such a shift. Congress could grind to a halt over veterans' benefits or military procurement reform. The DCCC could start a massive earned media campaign hilighting the biographies of several members of the Fighting Dems and use these candidates as point-men (and women) to "declare victory and go home". The party could start opposing all new base closings and emphasize the value of national service. But at the moment, no such PR push exists, and it's not immediately clear that it would directly improve Democratic support, so I don't yet count them as likely to happen.

Update: I should be clear that the tactical advantage of the Fighting Dems is quite large. Some of these candidates may turn out to be duds, but some of them will turn out to be Paul Hacketts.

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Last updated by Nicholas Beaudrot on 11:39 02 January 2006