Electoral Math
Reality-Based^TM Political Numbers from Nicholas Beaudrot

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I'm going to have to find some other sources for polling and policy news before this becomes the "All-Lieberman-All-The-Time" show.

Nonetheless, the Swing State Project produces numbers that suggest that the junior Senator from Connecticut is currently as vulnerable as Arlen Specter (R-PA). The recent Q-poll puts his job approval significantly below December's SurveyUSA poll, whose results give him the same negatives but a higher positive rating. So the picture is a bit murky, but let's remember that lots of institutions will likely line up to protect their own. In addition to Matt Stoller's list, challenging Lieberman risks crossing Chuck Schumer of the DSCC, who has done a great job recruiting strong Senate candidates who are mostly "proud Democrats". Forcing the Senate campaign committee ... which are poised for a landslide ... to spend time and money in Connecticut strikes me as a really crappy use of time, money, and man-hours.

I don't like Lieberman's permanent Sistah Souljah act, but this isn't the northern version of Zell Miller. Lieberman has a decent record when push comes to shove, so this comes down to style. We'd be better off finding a way to get him out of his mad descent into hawkery and spend the money in the Ohio.

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Last updated by Nicholas Beaudrot on 08:55 19 January 2006