Reality-BasedTM Political Numbers from Nicholas Beaudrot
Electoral Math
Reality-BasedTM Political Numbers from Nicholas Beaudrot
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| Feb 24 | Friday About-to-go-on-vacation Blogging |
| Feb 23 | Stadium Woes |
| Feb 21 | I Want my Wire DVD |
| Feb 20 | Mendacity |
| Feb 17 | Friday Chinchilla Blogging & Shuffle! |
| Feb 15 | The Worst News Story, Except for All the Others |
| Feb 14 | Hackett for ... Nothing |
| Feb 10 | Friday Chinchilla Blogging & Shuffle! |
| Feb 9 | Fear Is The Mind Killer |
| Feb 8 | It's the Opponents |
| Feb 7 | Good Culture from the Extraction Business |
| Feb 5 | Loyalty |
| Feb 3 | Productive Party Discipline; The Fuzzy Math of Ned Lamont |
| Feb 1 | I Saw That Too |
| Jan 31 | The Big Issues of the Day |
It's good to see that Paul Allen is getting on the municipality extortion bandwagon. Now that that's out of the way, let us continue ...
I'm going to be on vacation in Chile until March 12th. Electoral Math will remain largely silet during that time, perhaps with an occasional quick update and link to some photos. Until then, there are plenty of other interesting things to read on the internets.
Ciao!
The Sonics are going hat in hand to any elected body that will listen, hoping to get a new bailout stadium renovation. Curiously, the team is also asking for control of revenue received during non-Sonics events, which is quite simply insane. As the Stranger article points out, the lifespans of stadiums are getting shorter and shorter for no good reason; after all, are the lifespans of cars and other buildings are getting longer, so why can't we build stadiums that last longer too? Until the Sonics demonstrate a willingness to be a financial partner in any sort of renovation, there's no reason to negotiate.
I tend to be bearish on taxpayer-subsidized sports stadiums. They can be helpful if done properly, as part of a real urban redevelopment project. But too often the stadium deal is a standalone construction project, resulting in a windfall only for the sports team and a handful of bar & restaurant owners. In the Sonics' case, Key Arena is already part of the massive civic complex that is Seattle Center, so it's not really part of a "neighborhood" that can be redeveloped. Stadium deals tend to be a wash financially, so benefits are limited to the increase in civic pride and leisure in the city. That's important, but there's no reason to give away millions of dollars to get it.
Update: Via Belltowner, County Exec' Ron Sims suggests we think outside the box..
I know we're all very happy that HBO has renewed The Wire, but for those of us who weren't hip enough to start watching until after Season 3, would you please release the DVD before the start of Season 4? I can't imagine the production cost of the DVD is that high; just get David Simon to riff about a couple of episodes on the commentary track and put it together.
I mean, really, given your planned releases, surely a The Wire can outsell a few of those.
While fact-checking Bush quotes for this piece on the President's new energy political speeches, I came across this quote:
BUSH: Well, I'm not for photo licensing. Let me say something about Columbine. Listen, we've got gun laws. He says we ought to have gun-free schools. Everybody believes that. I'm sure every state in the union has got them. You can't carry a gun into a school. And there ought to be a consequence when you do carry a gun into a school. But Columbine ...
Now, put on your SAT or LSAT hat and answer one question. Which of the following conclusions is best supported by the passage?
(a) Bush would lobby Congress to pass the Gun-Free School Zones Act
(b) Bush would sign the Gun-Free School Zones Act, but not actively lobby Congress for it
(c) Every state in the union has laws banning guns from school property.
(d) Bush supports increasing penalties for carrying a gun to school
(e) None of the above
My answer's on the flip.
Here's Troy (top) and Erica, on the fancy new camera:
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Despite the protestations of CBS News, there are strange ways in which the "recent unpleasantness" isn't so bad for the White House. As measured by the number of Google News articles, Hurricane Katrina is still a much larger story than Cheney. The shooting has not moved Katrina from headline slot in either the Seattle Times and the Post-Intelligencer, but it has at least prevented the news cycle from being all FEMA, all the time. Beyond Katrina, there is still plenty of dirt to dig up on Jack Abramoff. Plus, the Economic Report of the President literally says up is down. It's quite possible that it's easier to deal with the Vice President shooting a guy in the face than to handle a full week on corruption and incompetence at FEMA.
I'm not suggesting that Karl Rove whispered these thoughts in Cheney's ear ... even he's not that Machiavellian ... but there are worse news stories out there.
Paul Hackett has announced he won't run for Senate. Or Congress. Or Lieutenant Governor. Or anything. Ever, at least it would seem.
This is frustrating on all sides, and highlights one of my least favorite aspects of politics; running for office isn't always a lot of fun. Most of your time is spent asking for money or votes. And the rest of your time is often spent managing relationships with high-dollar donors, party leaders, and a host of other characters, all of whom have their own ambitions, agendas, and perceptions of optimal strategy. I imagine it can be annoying to have so many people stick their fingers in your business, especially when you're used to the structured chain of command in the military.
Specifically, I'm annoyed that Schumer and Reid don't want a contested primary, after the Republican party used contested primaries to garner positive free media in South Carolina, Oklahoma, and Florida in 2004. I'm also annoyed that Hackett's Act I performance from Hamlet forced the DSCC to push Brown into the race. Had Hackett simply committed to running for Senate in August '05, we wouldn't be having this problem.
Perhaps one day Hackett will decide to run for a statewide office in Ohio, where he won't have to deal with quite as much backroom deal-making, hand-holding, and as many staffers call it, "ring-kissing". He'll have a good story line there -- that he likes politics, but decided that national level office wasn't as fun, and he'll still be fairly popular.
Drinking Liberally is cancelled today, for all the Cupid Valentino's out there.
Here's Troy next to his new house:
I would like to go on record that I like our military's chances against an engineering schematic.
Preventing Iran from acquiring nukes is a good idea. But the calculus for Iran seems pretty clear. Use strategic nuclear weapons, and NATO and/or Israel will respond with total disaster. So even if they get The Bomb, there's no real scenario where they could use it.
Atrios wonders why Heather Wilson (DR-NM), who's actually somewhat moderate by House standards, suddenly decided to hate freedom and embolden our enemies. The answer turns out to be pretty simple; she has a well funded challenger with high name recognition. If I were in her shoes, I'd be looking for a good way to distance myself from Bush as well.
Uncle! I clearly need to learn more about the Armed Forces, seeing how Robert Farley put me in my place. I agree that even without an Assistant Secretary for SO/LIC, special forces will still get plenty of attention. But I think low-intensity conflicts are already getting the short shrift, so I'm reluctant to see the Pentagon get rid any staffers who work on such issues.
Michael O'Hare wonders if there is any "society whose basic conventions and value system were formed or greatly altered in a context of extractive industry [mining, "strip farming", logging] that wasn't seriously damaged by it". What about the coal country of West Virginia, Southern Ohio, Western Pennsylvania, etc.? In this case, the rise of the coal mining business coincided with the rising union movement, and mine workers were some of the first to sign up for unions because of their terrible working conditions. In addition, the financier class was an alien caste of Wall Street bankers who neglected the needs of the locals.
Drinking Liberally is at Montlake Ale House again, 2307 24th ave E., 8pm until closing. Be there or be ... moderate.
I think at this point I am finally "from Seattle". I hadn't really felt the need to stick up for my adopted home town until someone decided to start calling it "frou frou". Which is not true of either the city or the football team.
The Seahawks played a decent game. They're two blunders away from contesting the whole game -- the trick play to Hines Ward for a touchdown, and Willie Parker's long run because of poor safety help. I didn't understand the primordial fear of Casey Hampton; the Seahawks have a tremendou O-line, and on Alexander's one A-gap run he managed a healthy seven or so yards. The refs didn't help, with a really crapulent "cutting the blocker" call on Matt Hasselback and what has to be the cheapest offensive pass interference call in Super Bowl history. But they weren't the difference makers; I'm pretty sure the nose of the football just broke the plane in Big Ben's touchdown run. Part of me is happy for Bill Cowher, who ought to have been just as much of a human interest story as Jerome Bettis, and for Georgia Alum Hines Ward and Brown Alum Sean Morey '99.
Use the comments to make your case for the best ad.
While I'm still on the fence when it comes to Joe Lieberman, I think we can all agree that it is well past time for Henry Cuellar to go. Cuellar was a Texas State Senator in 2000 who, as a Democrat, endorsed Bush (okay, fine, at that point Bush sounded a lot more bipartisan, and state pols do this sort of thing more often than national pols). He ran for congress in 2002, lost, then his district disappeared in the DeLaymander of 2003. Forced into a contested primary, he defeated incumbent Ciro Rodriguez (D) in the primary. His district is so heavily Democratic the Texas GOP isn't even bothering to put up a candidate, yet.he ranks as one of the ten most conservative Democrats in the house. Now, I cut most conservative Democrats a bit of slack [for example, I have no quarrel with Gene Taylor (R-MS)], since they represent tough districts for Democrats, but Cuellar has no excuse.
Cuellar is so unpopular with Democrats the Blue Dogs wouldn't let him into their club. He is more cozy with the GOP than turncoat Rodney Alexander (R-LA) , who switched parties on filing day so Democrats could not mount a challenge. Now, the Texas filing deadline has passed, so that won't happen at the very least until after the election. But there's no reason to tolerate this sort of behavior at the national level.
Meanwhile, I think Ned Lamont's arithmetic is a bit off. Raw turnout for the 2004 primary in Connecticut, in which there were a few competitive races, totaled 170,000 Democratic voters. Since 2006 is an off year, but there will be a well covered Democratic primary, turnout is likely to be the same, if not higher. The average volunteer can doorbell about 75 households or roughly 100 voters in a day's work. Assuming your canvassing reaches actual voters 50 or 60% of the time, and you would ideally canvass your supporters and undecideds two or three times, you really need about 6,000 volunteer-days at a minimum. And this doesn't count the time it will take to build walk lists, stuff fundraising envelopes, and do all the other things a campaign needs to do. I think Lamont will end up needing over 2,000 volunteers, assuming an average of three days of field work per person.
This is an awful lot of sweat-hours that could go towards defeating vulnerable Northeast Republican like Rob Simmons (CT), Chris Shays (CT), Vito Fossella (NY-Staten Island), and whichever upstate New York Republicans live closest to Connecticut.
It was far down in the article, but it's pretty shoddy reporting (via TPMcafe):
Elizabeth Bumiller serves up some crummy writing, making it sound like both Democrats and Republicans oppose targets on oil import reductions. But one side is skeptical that Bush has flip-flopped shifted tactics, while the other side seems to think that soydiesel is a completely wacky idea dreamed up by hippies in Eugene and therefore unworkable. That makes for two very distinct forms of opposition, and the Times deals with that here very poorly. I wonder what the ombudsperson has to say?
Again, this isn't a high crime against reporting, because it's not in the headline or first paragraph. And it doesn't matter either way, because the Energy Secretary has already called "psyche!" on the President's statement. But we deserve better.
While most people are concerened about things like health care and the proliferation of nuclear weapons, it's good to know that the President is opposed to mythical creatures found in Narnia and A Midsummer Night's Dream.
I want to know how this "wedge issue" got on the agenda. Is there any Democratic officeholder who is objectively pro-hybrid?
Update: The indominable Oliver Willis gives this issue the treatment it deserves, pointing out that the President is hard at work protecting us from Thundercats. [Thundercats! THUNDERCATS! Hooooooooooooo!]*
* Come on, you know you had the same thoughts too.
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updated by Nicholas Beaudrot on 08:14 01 February 2006
