Electoral Math
Reality-Based^TM Political Numbers from Nicholas Beaudrot

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Illinois Congressional Primaries
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Tuesday was election day in Illinois, where the hot races were the governorship and and establishment-versus-grassroots tussle in the Chicago exurbs. The governor's race featured a two-thirds serious, one-third protest primary challenge to incumbent Rod Blagojevich (D), and a no-autopsy-no-foul contest for the Republican nomination between social moderate Judy Baar Topinka, two time Senate-candidate and immigrant basher extraordinaire Jim Oberweis, plus longshot conservatives Bill Brady and Ron Gidwitz. In Illinois-6, grassroots all-star Christine Cegelis squared off with Iraq War Veteran Tammy Duckworth, who will probably replace Paul Hackett as the most recognizeable "Fighting Dem". To make a long story short, establishment candidates won everywhere. That leaves Tammy Duckworth with the difficult task of bringing Cegelis's supporters into the fold.

Chris Bowers is worried, while Alec Ovis is unimpressed with the Fighting Dems. I have a different take: turnout was just really low. Lower, even, than most contested primaries. Just under 32,000 voters cast ballots in the sixth congressional district -- roughly 6% of the Voting Age Population and around 10% of registered voters. By contrast, there were 45,000 votes in the Texas-28 matchup between Ciro Rodriguez and Henry Cuellar. In such low turnout elections, grassroots candidates will always end up with impressive showings. Their voters and volunteers tend to be the most committed. Notice that in every race, the non-establishment candidate seems to have overperformed: Jim Oberweis for Republican Governor, Forrest Claypool against John Stroger for Cook County Board President, Eisendrath against Blagojevich ... all ended up with higher vote tallies than expected.

We should all be impressed with Christine's tremendous under-the-radar field effort. And the DCCC's meddling in the race was certainly ham-fisted; they really owe Christine a job she can leverage into a run for office some other time. But let's not get carried away. On election day in November, Cegelis's 12,000 votes represent roughly 4.2% of the total vote -- more than pocket change, but not a huge number either.

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Last updated by Nicholas Beaudrot on 08:29 23 March 2006