Reality-BasedTM Political Numbers from Nicholas Beaudrot
Electoral Math
Reality-BasedTM Political Numbers from Nicholas Beaudrot
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Since immigration is suddenly in the news, it would be helpful if we all learned a thing or two about the current state of US immigration policy. Believe me, I'm learning as we go along too.
We need to start by dealing with the canard that illegal immigrants are somehow "cutting in line" and doing a disservice to those legal immigrants who "work hard and play by the rules". This notion is so unrealistic that it belongs in a dark basement, stacked between "we can balance the budget without raising taxes" [which ignores the reality that doing so would mean halving Social Security and Medicare spending, or eliminating the entire discretionary budget, including the Defense Department] and "we could have kept the peace in Iraq if we had sent 500,000 troops" [which ignores the reality that the US Army as presently constructed could not provide that many troops]. What's wrong with this New Democrat, rights-and-responsibilities notion? I'm only going to say this twice, so listen closely.
There is no line that uneducated Mexicans can stand in to get a green card and/or citizenship.
Once again, for those of you playing at home:
There is no line that uneducated Mexicans can stand in to get a green card and/or citizenship.
Urs has carefully illustrated this phenomenon in a Choose Your Own Adventure Format. To gain citizenship, you need a green card. To get a green card, unless you have a family member whose a US citizen, you need a long-term work permit. To get a long-term work permit you need ... a college degree [Yes, in practice its a bit more complicated than that, but that's the gist of current policy -- ed.]. There are no "rules" that undocumented bus boys/janitors/construction workers/nannies could "play by" and somehow gain citizenship. They can come work in the US legally, on a seasonal H2-B visa*. How many H-2B visas are issues annually? 66,000. What is the estimated number of illegal immigrants annually? 500,000. We have specifically stacked the deck against the poor, huddled, unwashed masses of the rest of the world, and then we've stacked them some more against the masses of Canada, Mexico, the UK, and Australia. Now, there are good reasons for excluding the masses; as Ursula points out, "there's no percentage in them." Krugman says this is to avoid "importing poverty", and while the gains in quality-of-life for poor immigrants are substantial, they come at the cost of reducing living standards for the least fortunate citizens already here in the United States.
So, what is to be done. The "guest worker" programs are all terrible, terrible, immoral ideas, representing the realization of what David Neiwert calls "corporate America's wet dream ... a labor force that cannot vote". Nor is the nativist wing of the Republican Party going to be able to deport 11 million people and build a 700 mile long wall along the US-Mexico border. But liberal "legalize it" solutions will continue the slide towards greater income inequality. So, there are no easy answers. Until real political leadership comes along that is willing to hash out some sort of compromise, there's almost no point in debating alternatives.
*Note: I have ignored the significantly more complicated question of seasonal farm-worker immigrants, who have a separate visa category H-2A. However, H-2A requirements include provisions that immigrant workers earn wages and benefits roughly in line with what native-born Americans earn in the same field, leading most farms to employ illegal immigrants.
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updated by Nicholas Beaudrot on 09:51 27 March 2006
