Reality-BasedTM Political Numbers from Nicholas Beaudrot
Electoral Math
Reality-BasedTM Political Numbers from Nicholas Beaudrot
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We're close to the final tally in the CA-50 special election, and Francine Busby has walked away with 43.9% of the vote. Chris Bowers is nervous, and Markos is upset with low turnout. This is uncommonly silly. The race to replace Duke Cunningham took place in suburban San Diego, for crying out loud. Rome wasn't built in a day, and the permanent Democratic majority won't appear instantly either. What's next, unhappiness that Democrats can't field credible House candidates in rural Utah? Frustration that the Party has yet to win the race for Orange County Commissioner?
I'm not just being a naysayer; I have numbers to back me up. The closest analogy to Tuesday's special election is the 2002 governor's primary. The Democratic primary was effectively uncontested, while Republicans had two and a half major candidates plus several also-rans. The results for CA-50 back then?
Gray Davis, et al. (D): 33,659 (33.6% of the two-party vote)
Bill Jones, Richard Riordan, Bill Simon, et al. (R): 66,496 (66.4%)
Just to make things perfectly clear, here are the numbers from Tuesday's special election:
Francine Busby (D): 59,816 (45.0% of the two-party vote)
Brian Bilbray, Eric Roach, Howard Kaloogian, et al. (R): 73,201 (55.0%)
Total turnout is up 33%, Democratic turnout is up 77%, and Democratic performance is up over 11% since the spring of 2002. Busby's 45% number roughly matches John Kerry's performance at the Presidential level, but is 6.5% higher than Busby's run for Congress in 2004. Yes, the Democratic party needs to do a better job converting poll voters into absentee voters, but let's not browbeat ourselves over what appears to be serious progress.
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updated by Nicholas Beaudrot on 10:22 13 April 2006
