The Value of Incumbency

Electoral Math
Reality-Based^TM Political Numbers from Nicholas Beaudrot

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The Value of Incumbency

#*%$(@!#*^!: One week, the offense is the second coming of the 1927, the next week they get shut down by Tomo friggin Okha. To be fair, Okha's a perenially underrated pitcher, but come on, people. Can we put together the hitting and the pitching at the same time, please?

I'm not sure what to make of the Democracy Corps polling that shows Republican incumbents faring significantly worse than Democratic incumbents. Because of the state of Delaymandering, incumbent Dems will always be stronger than Republicans, because Democratic voters have been compressed into as few districts as possible. In my Copious Free Time^TM, I'll take a look at the 2004 election results for the 416 seats where there's an incumbent, to see just how much (or little) things have changed.

... okay, so I went ahead and did the math. In 2004, House Democrats earned 65.7% of the vote in the 199 incumbent-held districts they'll defend, while Republicans earned 61.0% of the vote in their home turf. If the Corps' polling is correct, this means Dems can expect to shave between 8 and 12 points off the margin of victory for the average Republican. That means the top 47 Republicans, and then perhaps some more, may be vulnerable.

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Last updated by Nicholas Beaudrot on 04:36 27 April 2006
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