Electoral Math
Reality-Based^TM Political Numbers from Nicholas Beaudrot

Dukakis Bush on a Tank an ATV | Home | Nedrenaline

Believe, Part II

It's not clear to me just how much one can learn from the results of the Pennsylvania primary. Especially in cases where one party has a contested primary and the other doesn't. But the results show deep problems for the GOP.

Take PA-04. In 2004, Melissa Hart won with 63% of the vote. Last night, she drew only 36.8% of the vote, while the two Democrats in the race combined for 63.2% of the two-party vote. Or PA-05, where John Peterson won with 88% in 2004, but only got 60% of the ballots against a candidate with no website or FEC filings. In PA-08 Patrick Murphy (D) and his primary opponent earned 55% in a district where the Republican won with 56% in '04. PA-03 features a rematch of the last election, where Phil English (R) beat Steven Porter (D) 60-40. This year Porter leads 51-49. In PA-18 Dems combined for 61% in a district that Tim Murphy (R) won with 63%.

Sadly, Joe Sestak (D) couldn't gain much traction against the odious Curt Weldon, earning only 33%. Perhaps he should get a more Google-friendly surname. And Lois Murphy (D) and her primary opponent combined for only 46% of the vote while Jim Gerlach earned 54%.

I'm still worried that the generic polls don't mean that much. Maybe everyone in Connecticut says they will vote for a Democrat, but then Chris Shays runs some ads and they say to themselves "Hey! I like Shays. He's my kind of Republican. I'll vote for him." But the Pennsylvania results suggest that's not happening. The party will matter more than the candidate this cycle. The only question is how much it will matter.

| | technorati

Home | Mail  | RSS

Last updated by Nicholas Beaudrot on 07:23 17 May 2006