Electoral Math
Reality-Based^TM Political Numbers from Nicholas Beaudrot

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Local Democracy Corps Polling

Via MyDD, the Democracy Corps has some more data on the question of just how competitive certain marginally competitive House races have become. The news is mixed. PA-07, where Joe Sestak is challenging Curt Weldon, shows modest movement towards Democrats; Weldon's support has droped from 58% to 55% among those who have an opinion. NJ-07 shows regression, as Mike Ferguson has increased his share of the vote from 57% in '04 to just over 60%. OH-01 has the most change, which isn't that surprising given the terrible ratings of both George Bush and Bob Taft in Ohio right now. Steve Chabot earns 54%, down from 58%, of those who know who they'll vote for in November.

Of course, none of these results factor in undecided voters, who currently make up between 7% and 12% of the voting public in each district. But they're not terribly encouraging. If every district moved exactly 8 points towards Democrats (the best result of these three district-level polls), they would gain around a half dozen seats in the House. At least in these districts, voters have not yet abandoned Republican Congressional members wholesale. It will take more work to dislodge the allegience to local Republicans.

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Last updated by Nicholas Beaudrot on 06:51 23 May 2006