Electoral Math
Reality-BasedTM Political Numbers from Nicholas Beaudrot

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Local Democracy Corps Polling | Home | ?-? '12

Democrats Might Not Win All 50 States? Oh Noes!

And the answer is ...:

In 1964, Goldwater won his home state of Arizona, plus Georgia, South Carolina, Mississippi, Alabama, and Louisiana.

In 1948, Strom Thurmond won South Carolina, Mississippi, Alabama, and Louisiana.

Noticing a pattern here? I thought so. Look. I'm all for a permanent Democratic majority. I'm all for competing everywhere. But at some point a bit of pragmatism is in order. In Kos's perfect storm scenario, Democrats will control 66% of the governorships, representing over 70% of the country's population. That's quite impressive. But as long as the Democratic party stands for something, there will always be a few states that are bound to disagree. As Mark Schmitt puts it, "If you can't figure out why someone wouldn't vote for you, it's hard to figure out how to persuade them to vote for you."

Frankly, if the gay-bashing, xenophobic, government-hating branch of American politics is most concentrated in Texas and the Deep South, well, maybe we have to live with the possibility of not competing there. After all, you don't see articles or blog postings talking about the Republican's Northeast or Pacific Coast problems, despite the fact that every Senator from the Northeast Seaboard is a Democrat.

 

Kos paints a terrific picture of the opportunities for Democrats to take back a dozen Governor's mansions this year, then bemoans "the problem's we'll continue to face in the Deep South". I'm all for a permanent Democratic supermajority, but this is getting silly.

Pop Quiz: Name the six states that gave their electoral votes to Barry Goldwater in 1964.
Pop Quiz II: Name the four states that gaive their electoral votes to Dixiecrat candidate Strom Thurmond in 1948.

Answers, and the rest of this post on the flip.


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Last updated by Nicholas Beaudrot on 09:44 25 May 2006
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