Reality-BasedTM Political Numbers from Nicholas Beaudrot
Electoral Math
Reality-BasedTM Political Numbers from Nicholas Beaudrot
Democrats Might Not Win All 50 States? Oh Noes! | Home | Glug Glug
While considering the coming Democratic dominance of the Governor's mansions, I was struck by the difficulty of answering this question:
If Democrats win in 2008, who are the potential Republican Presidential nominees in 2012?
Seriously, it's slim pickings. Democrats will likely control the entire Northeast Corridor until 2010. Even if Arnold does win in California, he can't run for President. Right now, the GOP Governor's of Missouri and Indiana are so unpopular that they'll probably lose in 2008. Likewise for Ernie Fletcher (R) in Kentucky. That leaves the Governors of AL, GA, MS, SC, VT, UT, ID, TX, CT, and FL. If we assume the GOP stays pro-life, we can eliminate Jodi Rell (R-CT) and Jim Douglas (R-VT). That leaves Charlie Crist (R-FL) as the most likely name, though Haley Barbour certainly has the connections to run if he wants to. In the Senate, Chuck Hagel (R-NE) will still be young enough, as will people Sam Brownback (R-KS), Kay Bailey Hutchsion (R-TX) or John Cornyn (R-TX). But most senators—George Voinovich, John Warner, Pat Roberts, etc.—seem primarily interested in being senators, not running for president. That leaves members of Bush's cabinet, who will of course have a Bush problem. Only Colin Powell and perhaps Condi Rice could recover from it.
Like I said, there aren't a lot of candidates to choose from, and you have to stretch to make the case for several of them. Except there's one more name I've left out. He has the connections, name recognition, and following within the Republican party to win the nomination. He's a certain two-term retiring governor of Florida.
Go ahead, I'll give you a minute to pick up the pieces of your exploding head.
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So who's it going to be? Discuss in the comments.
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updated by Nicholas Beaudrot on 08:55 26 May 2006
