Electoral Math
Reality-Based^TM Political Numbers from Nicholas Beaudrot

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What's the Matter with Arizona Democrats?

Daniel Munz wonders why Jim Pederson hasn't made much traction against Jon Kyl. I think the answer is pretty clear from this graph. For some reason, Pederson has yet to convince Arizona Democrats that he's a viable alternative. After running some good ads in April, he managed to drive up Kyl's unfavorables, especially among identified Democrats, but they've since fallen back, almost to their pre-advertising levels. The closest analogy here is Maria Cantwell (D-WA), and while her opponent Mike McGavick has picked up some ground, he seems to have plateaued at around 43%. He's been unable to make big gains among her Republican supporters, just as Pederson has lost the ground he made up among Democrats.

Matt Stoller has theorized that this means Kyl's seat is competitive, because at election time, the Democrats will return to their partisan roots, but in the interim, people want to feel good about their elected leaders. Cantwell & Pederson's races will test this theory.

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Last updated by Nicholas Beaudrot on 08:24 26 July 2006