Reality-BasedTM Political Numbers from Nicholas Beaudrot
Electoral Math
Reality-BasedTM Political Numbers from Nicholas Beaudrot
The DC Press Corps Is Not Your Friend | Home | From Bush Disapproval to Democratic House Votes
The latest SurveyUSA poll shows Darcy Burner (D) within striking distance of Dave "'Sometimes the leadership comes to me and says, 'Dave, we want you to vote a certain way'" Reichert (R). Call it good-but-not-great news. Even though Reichert was famous before becoming a Congressman, Darcy draws 41% of the vote despite having very little name recognition or active TV & radio campaigning. She can now pocket that 41% as "no more Bushism" voters and focus on convincing one out of every 6 remaining voters it's time for a change in the other Washington.
I think Stefan Eric is wrong; making this election about Bush almost certainly works to Darcy's advantage. At the moment, the crosstabs show Burner drawing votes from 79% of Democrats, but only 66% of those who disapprove of Bush. Stefan thinks that Democrats have to offer a positive agenda. To win the election just by winning over anti-Bush voters, she'd have to win around 87% of the members of that second group. By comparison, Kerry won 93% of the voters who dissapproved of Bush's job in 2004, so it's not out of the question. But it has to happen—soon—if the race is going to become competitive. So it's time to put all your footage of Reichert praising Bush on YouTube.
Also, the crosstabs shows Reichert leading 58-39 among 18-34 year old voters, and that the youth vote will account for 25% of the electorate. If you believe that, I have a bridge to sell you.
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updated by Nicholas Beaudrot on 05:14 30 August 2006
