Electoral Math
Reality-Based^TM Political Numbers from Nicholas Beaudrot

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From Bush Disapproval to Democratic House Votes
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Comparing the crosstabs in the Reichert-Burner poll to those in the Cantwell-McGavick race shows just how much ground Darcy can gain by tying her opponent to our currently unpopular President. While Reichert managed to earn the votes of 27% of those who disapprove of Bush, McGavick can only manage 14%. That means that with an aggressive campaign tying Reichert to Bush, Darcy can reasonably expect to swing 6-8% (that's 13% of 58%, more or less) of the electorate to her side. That puts the race at a much closer 48-47 margin for Reichert.

Now, there are no guarantees in politics, so Darcy's campaign will have to work to convince voters that the best way to send a message to Bush is to vote D. But winning is within the realm of possibility.

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Last updated by Nicholas Beaudrot on 05:30 30 August 2006