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Polling in Iraq

A friend and I have a running argument over the costs, benefits, and feasability of remaining in Iraq and accomplishing some real reconstruction. I'm on the "we've done enough; there's nothing else a Western, Christian army is going to be able to accomplish side; Iraq won't be a real threat to domestic security any time soon; and it's immoral to keep the troops there without any real likelihood of success" side, he's on the "if we actually fixed water, electricity, etc., the hatred would die down; if we leave Iraq will descend into a regional proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran; and it's immoral to leave Iraq worse than we left it" side. I counter that there's no way the US can engage in any reconstruction given the current level of violence, and that there's so much ill will even between the Iraqis who aren't fighting and the US army that the situation is irrepairable in the next few years. We're both guessing, based on anecdotal evidence in the news and on blogs.

But there's finally some hard data. The US forces draws their strongest support from the Kurds, but even then only garners 36% approval. That's the bad news. More important, though, are the top three reasons the public thinks we really invaded Iraq. First is "it's about the oil" (76%), second is "to build military bases" (41%), and third is "to help Israel" (32%). The US could, if we were willing to work at it, dispel these notions. Well, okay, we're not going to broker a peaceful resolution to the Israel-Palestine issues in the next few months. But a President could go to the Middle East, declare "we will not build permanent military bases in Iraq", and announce plans to tax oil profits and use the money to build power plants, sewer pipes, whatever you want. And you'd have to walk the walk, too. Bring in Arabic TV stations to film the demolition of existing bases, and let Iraqi construction workers take care of building the sewer system. You wouldn't convince the whole country, but you'd convince a lot of people, perhaps enough to turn support against the militias and insurgents.

I'm not saying it's that simple. Many news articles report that militias target anyone who is at all associated with the Americans—teachers, policemen, etc.—so lots of Iraqis would fear working to rebuild Iraq on behalf of America. And obviously Bush shows no interested in bipartisanship when it comes to Iraq. But it appears that if you wanted to form a bipartisan coalition of Reality-Based foreign policy types who thought we had to take reconstruction seriously before we left the country, you could do it, and you'd have some chance of success. I wouldn't be happy about it, but maybe you could.

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Last updated by Nicholas Beaudrot on 06:47 31 August 2006