Electoral Math
Reality-Based^TM Political Numbers from Nicholas Beaudrot

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Ned Lamont and Chris Murphy

Senate candidate Ned Lamont (D-CT) is now raising money for House candidate Chris Murphy (D). On the face of things, this appears to be an odd choice. Let's review the lay of the land. Connecticut currently has three Republican House members.

• CT-4: Chris Shays. Diane Farrell has almost equaled Shays in the money race. On top of that, Shays lives in the greater New York metro area, so his voters are more likely to read the New York Times and watch New York-based TV stations (which might explain why he's desperately trying to soften his image on Iraq). On top of that, Stamford is Lamont's home, where his endorsement might matter most.
• CT-2: Rob Simmons. Simmons ability to hold his seat is close to a miracle; the district tends to vote for Democrats more than any other GOP-held district in the country. His challenger, Joe Courtney, is only behind in the money race by a 4-to-3 margin.
• CT-5: Nancy Johnson. Johnson boasts a 100% rating from pro-choice groups, has $2.6M in the bank. At the end of the last filing period, Chris Murphy was behind Johnson by over one MILLION dollars in the money race. On paper, he appears to be the weakest of Connecticut's three challengers.

Perhaps, then, Lamont's campaigning has something to do with this map. Murphy's district was much more pro-Lamont in the primaries than either Farrell's or Courtney's. And the challenger may get more bang for his buck here—the other challengers are already within "striking" distance in the money race, while Murphy needs some more money to get there.

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Last updated by Nicholas Beaudrot on 08:45 02 September 2006