Electoral Math
Reality-Based^TM Political Numbers from Nicholas Beaudrot

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A Sigh of Relief

Overall, this recent megapoll from Constituent Dynamics is quite reassuring; out of the 27 Republican-held districts they polled, 26 races are competitive at some level, with only Rep. Katherine Harris's (R-FL) old seat appearing to be out of reach at the time being. The poll showed leads for Democrats in thirteen GOP districts, and they didn't even include polling for several pickup opportunities like indicted former House Majority Leader Tom Delay's (R) district, the three contested seats in Indiana, and others, not to mention several "surprisingly competitive" districts such as WA-5, WY-AL, and CO-5. Taking back the House looks like a distinct possibility, though Republicans will spend hundreds of billions to preserve their majorities.

Closer to home, their polling in WA-8 seems to validate my theory that the Burner-Reichert race is much closer than previous polling showed, because the demographic characteristics of the voters in the district are significantly different from the population as a whole. As usual, the younger you are, the less likely you are to vote. The most recent SurveyUSA poll, which polled registered voters in a state with a fifteen year-old motor-voter law, drastically overstated the importance of the pro-Reichert youth vote.

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Last updated by Nicholas Beaudrot on 08:16 08 September 2006