Electoral Math
Reality-Based^TM Political Numbers from Nicholas Beaudrot

Rememberances | Home | Friday Shuffle!

September 12 Primary Results

Political Wire has a couple of good wrap-ups.

It's worth remembering that Lamont's August win was the exception, not the rule. In most elections, the establishment candidate wins; after all, favorites are favorites for a reason. The fact that Donna Edwards (D) made her race against Maryland Rep. Al Wynn (D) close is remarkable on its own, and given the number of not-yet-counted ballots, she may still stand a chance to win.

I'm really curious about Carol Shea Porter's (D) campaign in NH-1. Shea-Porter defeated her better financed opponent by a hefty margin, thanks to "an army of 300 volunteers". Given the turnout in the district (24,000 or so votes), and her final tally (12,500), this means Team Shea-Porter had one volunteer for every 80 voters, and one for every 40 that ultimately voted for her. That's incredible! By my estimate, though, she'll need 80,000 votes to win the general election, meaning the size of her field effort will have to increase by six-fold in the next six weeks.

| | technorati

Home | Mail  | RSS

Last updated by Nicholas Beaudrot on 08:12 15 September 2006