Here's why. In a divided Senate, Joe can't afford to switch parties, or even become an independent. Democrats are almost guaranteed to defeat the weak sisters of the Senate class of 2002 (Norm Coleman, Wayne Allard, and perhaps others) and will therefore take control of the Senate. Lieberman would become persona non grata in his former party in that case. And he can't leave to become SecDef or EPA director and let Rell appoint a Republican, even if he wanted to. Here are my amendments to the Scenario.
The Democrats hold the New Jersey Senate seat, and carry Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Missouri, and Virginia, but not Tennessee (or Arizona, which is reportedly in play). Locally, Connecticut Democrats gain two or more seats in the State House and one in the State Senate, giving them veto-proof majorities in both Houses.
Lieberman keeps his commitment to caucus with the Democrats. We organize the Senate, start holding hearings. The White House stonewalls.
The Iraq Study Group reports, says Iraq is a mess, mistakes have been made, and a new strategy is needed.
Rumsfeld resigns.
Bush appoints Lieberman to Defense.
Lieberman acknowledges Bush's bipartisan gesture, accepts "for the good of the country."
Connecticut Democrats pass a law mandating a special election within 60 days of any vacancy at the Federal level.
Rell appoints a Republican to take Lieberman's seat. Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D) announces his intention to run for Lieberman's Senate seat. Polls show Blumenthal with double digit leads over now ex-Congressmen Chris Shays, Nancy Johnson, and Rob Simmons. All decline to challenge him.
Cheney casts the deciding vote, reorganizing the Senate with the Republicans in the majority.Blumenthal cruises to election.
All the Senate Democrats who have endorsed Lamont but are now pulling their punches to avoid annoying Lieberman kick themselves.Blumenthal votes to continue organizing the senate with a Democratic speaker's gavel.
Karl Rove laughs and laughs and laughsweeps into his glass of milk.
