Electoral Math
Reality-Based^TM Political Numbers from Nicholas Beaudrot

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Predictions

I'm trying to be pessimistic, but the polls keep making it hard. In WA-08 SurveyUSA has Burner-Reichert tied at 49-49, with Burner ahead among those who've already voted, and bad weather likely to dampen turnout. In KY-04, they've got Anne Northup (R) behind 50-45, in a race the National Journal ranks as the 36th most competitive in the nation! With these sorts of indicators, it's hard to envision the "small gains" scenario where Democrats take the House by the thinnest of margins, winning only 16 or 17 seats.

In the Senate, late-breaking polls show Claire McCaskill (D) inching ahead of Jim Talent. And even Harold Ford, Jr. seems to be clawing back into the race against Bob Corker.

My pessimistic prediction was 19 House seats, 4 Senate seats, and 7 or 8 governorships. I'm sticking with that prediction, even though the numbers don't support it, if only to avoid a big letdown tonight.

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Last updated by Nicholas Beaudrot on 07:58 07 November 2006