Reality-BasedTM Political Numbers from Nicholas Beaudrot
Electoral Math
Reality-BasedTM Political Numbers from Nicholas Beaudrot
Partisan Realignment Maps: Tennessee | Home | Partisan Realignment Maps: Montana
See this article for a full explanation.
Previous maps: Pennsylvania, Tennessee
In Maryland, Republicans nominated their African-American Lieutenant Governor, hoping that he would win over moderate Democrats and break the Dems' supermajorities among African American voters. This strategy didn't work at all; the rest of the state became more Democratic, particularly in the DC suburbs of Montgomery County, and most African-American voters continued to vote for Democrats. Nominating an African-American Republican appears to be worth about 5% of the black vote.
Michael Steele (R) did manage to lose by a closer margin than George Bush, losing 55-45 where the President had lost 56-46. But this was due entirely to Steele's ability to hold down the margin in the heavily African-American areas of Baltimore City (65% black), Prince George's county (66% black), and Somerset county (41% black). It's worth noting that while Philadelphia appears red despite Democrats outperforming their 2004 result by 3%, Steele did in fact improve Republican performance by 6% in Baltimore and 3-4% in Prince George's county. Dems made modest gains in Montgomery county, plus larger gains in two rural counties that are 60-40 Republican.
As Montgomery county continues to grow more and more Democratic, Maryland will move further and further into the party's set of "base" states.
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updated by Nicholas Beaudrot on 08:48 15 November 2006
