Electoral Math
Reality-Based^TM Political Numbers from Nicholas Beaudrot

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Partisan Realignment Maps: Montana

Full explanation here.

Previous Maps: Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Maryland

Yesterday on the Daily Kos, there was some discussion of how Tester won his race, attempting to prove that rural voters put him over the top. I figured I could provide some insight.

The Montana Map shows a clear Democratic shift in Choteau county—Tester's home town—plus the rural counties in South-Central Montana, and a clear Republican shift in the Eastern part of the state. As for the urban/rural counties, of the nine most populous counties in the state, Tester made sizeable gains in two, modest gains in four, broke even in one, and lost ground in two. Of the remaining 47 counties, Tester made gains in 18 of them, or roughly 35% of the counties. That's better than most Democrats fare in rural Montana, but it's certainly not a blowout. The roughly 2% increase in net partisan performance in these counties accounts for roughly 600 votes. By contrast, the similar increase in the populous counties accounts for 1600 votes. So in fact, neither Tester's standing in rural Montana nor in the big towns of Missoula, Billings, and Bozeman propelled him to victory; Tester's won simply by being the more popular candidate in all parts of the state.

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Last updated by Nicholas Beaudrot on 09:28 18 November 2006