Reality-BasedTM Political Numbers from Nicholas Beaudrot
Electoral Math
Reality-BasedTM Political Numbers from Nicholas Beaudrot
Partisan Realignment Maps: Montana | Home | Partisan Realignment Maps: Ohio
Full explanation here.
Previous Maps: Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Maryland, Montana
Incumbent Senator and former Governor George Allen (R-VA) faced off against Jim Webb (D), a "Reagan Democrat" whom Reagan made Secretary of the Navy, but who has since returned to the Democratic fold with a mix of opposition to Republican conduct of Iraq and "fiery populism", whatever that means. The race was only marginally competitive until George Allen lost his mind and called a kid "macaca". Webb had his share of problems with the electorate, notable his prior opposition to affirmative action and resistance to expanding the role of women in the military. Towards the end of the campaign, Allen tried to make an issue of Jim Webb's war novel, a piece of writing good enough to earn the endorsement of John McCain. The race even included some good old-fashioned voter intimidation which will receive a thorough investigation. None of this was enough to stop the Chuckwagon.
This map is quite similar to the Miller-Webb map from the Democratic primary, though Webb fared better in the Norfolk-Newport News region against Allen than he did against Miller.
The Southeast region of the state is also the most heavily African-American. So despite "macaca", George Allen actually fared better these counties, relatively speaking, than George Bush did. Perhaps, you may think, as with urban areas, there is simply not much room for improvement? Not so; in Sussex County (61% African-American), Webb's 52-48 margin of victory was smaller than Kerry's 56-44 win. Again, it's unclear what to the underlying cause of Webb's weakness among African Americans was. Was it the result of more resources going into Central & Southwest Virginia? Allen's immediate effort to earn the endorsement of black politicians? Voter intimidation? We can't say which it was with any certainty.
The continued rapid growth and Democratic shift in Northern Virginia continues, and is now extending into the far reaches of the Virginia exurbs and the Appalachian foothills along the Virginia/West Virginia border. This bodes well for Democratic prospects in Virginia over the next decade. It also suggests that the "Webb Coalition", which includes more of the Appalachian foothills, is a midpoint between the "Warner Coalition" (DC+SW+Coastal SE) and the "Kaine Coalition" (DC+exurbs+small towns)
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updated by Nicholas Beaudrot on 09:28 18 November 2006
