Electoral Math
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Partisan Realignment Maps: Ohio

Full explanation here.

Previous Maps: Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Maryland, Montana, Virginia

Congressman Sherrod Brown (D-Cleveland Suburbs) challenged Mike DeWine in what initially looked like a winnable race, but not a slam dunk. DeWine was neither a popular nor unpopular, but the people of Ohio soured on the Republican party quickly at all levels. Employment continues to languish as manufacturing jobs leave the country. Stories of local soldiers' deaths end up in local newspapers frequently. The state-level GOP has been embroiled in scandals surrounding gifts to the governor and a Republican fundraiser defrauding the state's pension funds. Still, DeWine had a substantial financial advantage and the powers of incumbency. But it wasn't enough to keep him in office.

As with Pennsylvania, the urban machines in Cincinnati, Cleveland, Columbus, and Dayton were unable to match their turnout in 2004. However, Northwest Ohio seems to be particularly upset with the GOP. In addition, Southeast Ohio is moving back into the Democratic column. This is one of the poorer regions of the country, with a median household income closer to $30,000 than the national median of $43,000. Previously, these voters have left the Democrats, likely due to the culture wars, but they appear to be coming back.

It's unclear what the long-term trends are in Ohio. Will the state as a whole simply give up on the Republican party? Or will some of the new Democratic voters return the GOP because of "cultural concerns" about their newly elected leaders?

Curiously, while Republicans faced a wipeout in the Senate and Governor's contest, Democrats were only able to take over one House seat; the one held by the newly-convicted Bob Ney. Dems did increase their share of the House vote, so perhaps this is simply the result of successful Gerrymandering by the opposition.

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Last updated by Nicholas Beaudrot on 10:10 18 November 2006