Reality-BasedTM Political Numbers from Nicholas Beaudrot
Electoral Math
Reality-BasedTM Political Numbers from Nicholas Beaudrot
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In this lightly contested race, Maria Cantwell (D) faced off against former political operative and Safeco CEO Mike! McGavick. McGavick seemed to be gaining traction in the early months of the campaign, but questions surrounding a drunk-driving arrest, his less than forthcoming response, and the Democratic wave made it impossible for him to win.
I suspected that the blue shift in King County, which includes Seattle and many of its suburbs, would continue. The Eastside suburbs are roughly equivalent to the Connecticut districts that tossed out moderate Republicans Nancy Johnson (R-CT) and Chris Murphy (R-CT); lots of upper and upper-middle class, non-church going voters who are moderate, pro-choice, and civic minded. Surprisingly, King county made little movement towards Democrats from its 2004 performance. Both Kerry and Cantwell earned just over 65% of the two-party vote in the county, making Cantwell's "net performance" negative, for similar reasons that Philadelphia shows similar trends. I have no good explanation for this trend, and if it persists, it will be difficult to oust Dave Reichert (further analysis of turnout in Seattle versus the suburbs may provide more insight, but we'll have to wait for more returns.
There's also no convenient explanation for the rapid blue shift in Southeastern Washington. This region was uncontested at the House level, and while some of these counties contain sizeable Latino populatins, the deepest blue ones do not. Does this mean Doc Hastings's seat might become competitive? Well, not as currently drawn, but perhaps during the 2010 redistricting his district might become marginally more Democratic.
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updated by Nicholas Beaudrot on 11:03 18 November 2006
