| Nov 27 | Reichert-Burner final results |
| Nov 26 | Rahm Emanuel (D-IL) has Something in Common With a Very Important Person (Me) |
| Nov 20 | Turkey Travels |
| Nov 18 | Partisan Realignment Maps: Washington State |
| Nov 18 | Partisan Realignment Maps: Missouri |
| Nov 18 | Partisan Realignment Maps: Ohio |
| Nov 18 | Partisan Realignment Maps: Virginia |
| Nov 17 | Partisan Realignment Maps: Montana |
| Nov 15 | Partisan Realignment Maps: Maryland |
| Nov 14 | Partisan Realignment Maps: Tennessee |
| Nov 12 | Partisan Realignment Maps: Pennsylvania |
| Nov 8 | Election 2006: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly |
| Nov 7 | Predictions |
| Nov 7 | Vote! |
| Nov 1 | Fun With Juxtaposition |
I think the results are done trickling in. Dave Reichert has defeated Darcy Burner 51.5-48.5, only a slightly smaller margin than in his 51.5-46.7 win in 2004. On the plus side, it's impressive that Burner, a political novice, came so close to defeating Reichert. On the minus side, this was a heavily Democratic year, meaning it will be that much harder to defeat Reichert in 2008 and beyond.
Precinct-level data is not available, but the county-level data suggests a broad-based movement away from Reichert. Burner reduced the margin by 3600 votes in King County, and 4000 votes in Pierce County. One wonders if the 2008 challenger will be able to capitalize on it.
A birthday (more "who was born on this day" lists here, here, here, here, here, and here. Joel Coen! Vin Scully! Latin Mass replaced with the vernacular! NFL broadcast on TV!). Gift-giving is best done via my Amazon.com's wish list. Or, find your favorite charity, give them $25, and send me a note telling me why you picked them.
Christmas is just around the corner, too.
Full explanation here.
Previous Maps: Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Maryland, Montana, Virginia, Ohio, Missouri
In this lightly contested race, Maria Cantwell (D) faced off against former political operative and Safeco CEO Mike! McGavick. McGavick seemed to be gaining traction in the early months of the campaign, but questions surrounding a drunk-driving arrest, his less than forthcoming response, and the Democratic wave made it impossible for him to win.
I suspected that the blue shift in King County, which includes Seattle and many of its suburbs, would continue. The Eastside suburbs are roughly equivalent to the Connecticut districts that tossed out moderate Republicans Nancy Johnson (R-CT) and Chris Murphy (R-CT); lots of upper and upper-middle class, non-church going voters who are moderate, pro-choice, and civic minded. Surprisingly, King county made little movement towards Democrats from its 2004 performance. Both Kerry and Cantwell earned just over 65% of the two-party vote in the county, making Cantwell's "net performance" negative, for similar reasons that Philadelphia shows similar trends. I have no good explanation for this trend, and if it persists, it will be difficult to oust Dave Reichert (further analysis of turnout in Seattle versus the suburbs may provide more insight, but we'll have to wait for more returns.
There's also no convenient explanation for the rapid blue shift in Southeastern Washington. This region was uncontested at the House level, and while some of these counties contain sizeable Latino populatins, the deepest blue ones do not. Does this mean Doc Hastings's seat might become competitive? Well, not as currently drawn, but perhaps during the 2010 redistricting his district might become marginally more Democratic.
Full explanation here.
Previous Maps: Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Maryland, Montana, Virginia, Ohio
Former State Auditor and gubernatorial candidate Claire McCaskill (D), who was perhaps planning on a rematch in the governor's race, listened to Chuck Schumer's please to run for the Senate. Focusing on the rural regions of the state that helped her defeat Bob Holden in the 2004 primary, McCaskill managed a 50-47 victory over Jim Talent.
McCaskill was unable rev up Democratic performance St Louis, but her successful career as a state legislator and Jackson County Prosecutor helped her build a large margin in Kansas City. In addition, she made substantial improvements in the South-Central regions near Fort Leonard Hood, as well as the area surrounding the Truman Reservoir. Bush's appearance in Southwestern Missouri appears to have helped improve performance in that region. The red counties along the Mississippi river on the easter part of the state compromoise the more Catholic portion of the state, so perhaps the stem cell bill helped turn out Republicans in that area.
Full explanation here.
Previous Maps: Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Maryland, Montana, Virginia
Congressman Sherrod Brown (D-Cleveland Suburbs) challenged Mike DeWine in what initially looked like a winnable race, but not a slam dunk. DeWine was neither a popular nor unpopular, but the people of Ohio soured on the Republican party quickly at all levels. Employment continues to languish as manufacturing jobs leave the country. Stories of local soldiers' deaths end up in local newspapers frequently. The state-level GOP has been embroiled in scandals surrounding gifts to the governor and a Republican fundraiser defrauding the state's pension funds. Still, DeWine had a substantial financial advantage and the powers of incumbency. But it wasn't enough to keep him in office.
As with Pennsylvania, the urban machines in Cincinnati, Cleveland, Columbus, and Dayton were unable to match their turnout in 2004. However, Northwest Ohio seems to be particularly upset with the GOP. In addition, Southeast Ohio is moving back into the Democratic column. This is one of the poorer regions of the country, with a median household income closer to $30,000 than the national median of $43,000. Previously, these voters have left the Democrats, likely due to the culture wars, but they appear to be coming back.
It's unclear what the long-term trends are in Ohio. Will the state as a whole simply give up on the Republican party? Or will some of the new Democratic voters return the GOP because of "cultural concerns" about their newly elected leaders?
Curiously, while Republicans faced a wipeout in the Senate and Governor's contest, Democrats were only able to take over one House seat; the one held by the newly-convicted Bob Ney. Dems did increase their share of the House vote, so perhaps this is simply the result of successful Gerrymandering by the opposition.
Full explanation here.
Previous Maps: Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Maryland, Montana
Incumbent Senator and former Governor George Allen (R-VA) faced off against Jim Webb (D), a "Reagan Democrat" whom Reagan made Secretary of the Navy, but who has since returned to the Democratic fold with a mix of opposition to Republican conduct of Iraq and "fiery populism", whatever that means. The race was only marginally competitive until George Allen lost his mind and called a kid "macaca". Webb had his share of problems with the electorate, notable his prior opposition to affirmative action and resistance to expanding the role of women in the military. Towards the end of the campaign, Allen tried to make an issue of Jim Webb's war novel, a piece of writing good enough to earn the endorsement of John McCain. The race even included some good old-fashioned voter intimidation which will receive a thorough investigation. None of this was enough to stop the Chuckwagon.
This map is quite similar to the Miller-Webb map from the Democratic primary, though Webb fared better in the Norfolk-Newport News region against Allen than he did against Miller.
The Southeast region of the state is also the most heavily African-American. So despite "macaca", George Allen actually fared better these counties, relatively speaking, than George Bush did. Perhaps, you may think, as with urban areas, there is simply not much room for improvement? Not so; in Sussex County (61% African-American), Webb's 52-48 margin of victory was smaller than Kerry's 56-44 win. Again, it's unclear what to the underlying cause of Webb's weakness among African Americans was. Was it the result of more resources going into Central & Southwest Virginia? Allen's immediate effort to earn the endorsement of black politicians? Voter intimidation? We can't say which it was with any certainty.
The continued rapid growth and Democratic shift in Northern Virginia continues, and is now extending into the far reaches of the Virginia exurbs and the Appalachian foothills along the Virginia/West Virginia border. This bodes well for Democratic prospects in Virginia over the next decade. It also suggests that the "Webb Coalition", which includes more of the Appalachian foothills, is a midpoint between the "Warner Coalition" (DC+SW+Coastal SE) and the "Kaine Coalition" (DC+exurbs+small towns)
Full explanation here.
Previous Maps: Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Maryland
Yesterday on the Daily Kos, there was some discussion of how Tester won his race, attempting to prove that rural voters put him over the top. I figured I could provide some insight.
The Montana Map shows a clear Democratic shift in Choteau county—Tester's home town—plus the rural counties in South-Central Montana, and a clear Republican shift in the Eastern part of the state. As for the urban/rural counties, of the nine most populous counties in the state, Tester made sizeable gains in two, modest gains in four, broke even in one, and lost ground in two. Of the remaining 47 counties, Tester made gains in 18 of them, or roughly 35% of the counties. That's better than most Democrats fare in rural Montana, but it's certainly not a blowout. The roughly 2% increase in net partisan performance in these counties accounts for roughly 600 votes. By contrast, the similar increase in the populous counties accounts for 1600 votes. So in fact, neither Tester's standing in rural Montana nor in the big towns of Missoula, Billings, and Bozeman propelled him to victory; Tester's won simply by being the more popular candidate in all parts of the state.
See this article for a full explanation.
Previous maps: Pennsylvania, Tennessee
In Maryland, Republicans nominated their African-American Lieutenant Governor, hoping that he would win over moderate Democrats and break the Dems' supermajorities among African American voters. This strategy didn't work at all; the rest of the state became more Democratic, particularly in the DC suburbs of Montgomery County, and most African-American voters continued to vote for Democrats. Nominating an African-American Republican appears to be worth about 5% of the black vote.
Michael Steele (R) did manage to lose by a closer margin than George Bush, losing 55-45 where the President had lost 56-46. But this was due entirely to Steele's ability to hold down the margin in the heavily African-American areas of Baltimore City (65% black), Prince George's county (66% black), and Somerset county (41% black). It's worth noting that while Philadelphia appears red despite Democrats outperforming their 2004 result by 3%, Steele did in fact improve Republican performance by 6% in Baltimore and 3-4% in Prince George's county. Dems made modest gains in Montgomery county, plus larger gains in two rural counties that are 60-40 Republican.
As Montgomery county continues to grow more and more Democratic, Maryland will move further and further into the party's set of "base" states.
See this article for a full explanation.
Previous maps: Pennsylvania
We move from the interesting results in Pennsylvania to the more anti-climactic outcome in Tennessee.
It's hard to overstate this, there was almost no partisan realignment in the state. A few counties outside of Memphis got a little bit (3.5%) more Republican, and a number of counties around Nashville got a tiny bit more Democratic. But that's it. Twenty-six counties demonstrated a partisan performance within 0.5% of the 2004 result.
I wish I had a closer view of Harold Ford's strategy in Tennessee. My impression was that he spent a huge amount of time and effort attempting to narrow the partisan gap in East Tennessee, the most Republican part of the state. If that was his strategy, it didn't work; only a few counties in the Eastern part of the state registered any noticeable shift towards Democrats. Instead, Ford's greatest success came in Central Tennessee, just east of Nashville. This suggests that Ford might have been better off concentrating his resources on the Nashville media market and nearby small towns—Lebanon, Murfreesboro, Gallatin, Cookeville, Crossville, etc., rather than hitting hard in Knoxville, Newport, Kingsport, and Johnson City in the Northeast corner of the state. Let's take an example: Cannon County, just east of Nashville. Ford won the county 53-45; a big improvement over 2004, when Kerry lost 46-54. By contrast, Ford made up almost no ground in Greene county in the Northeast (32-68 for Kerry vs 35-64 for Ford). There are several other counties that show similar results.
The point I'm trying to make is this: Ford expended a lot of effort trying to shift incredibly Republican counties from a margin near to 30-70 to a one closer to 40-60. But, there were a number of counties that were already around 40-60 that flipped to 50-50. Ford might have been better off trying to push those counties another 5-10 points into the Democratic column than he would have been trying to make up ground in the most conservative part of the state.
Update: I've changed the scale of the map slightly; now, counties whos net Democratic performance stayed with 0.5% of the 2004 results show up as white.
This week, I'm going to roll out a series of maps demonstrating the change in partisan alignment in competitive Senate races between 2004 and 2006. While almost every county became more Democratic, these maps show which became more Democratic than the state as a whole. The calculation used is:
(SenateDem06County – SenateDem06State) –
(PrezDem04County – PrezDem04State)
So, for example, let's take Erie County, Pennsylvania; the darker pink county in the Northwest corner of the state.
Obviously, it's easy to read too much into these numbers. For instance, the largest shift towards Republicans in Pennsylvania occured in Philadelphia County (and city). Philly moved from 81-19 Kerry to 84-16 Casey while the state as a whole swung towards casey by 9%. Does this mean that the city became "more Republican"? Of course not; it's more likely that there are so few urban Republicans left that there isn't much room for improvement. In fact, most of "more Republican" counties are already heavily Democratic areas in Pittsburgh, the Philly suburbs, and the Northwest (the few counties in the Northeast are exceptions; all went for Santorum by modest margins).
Still, we can spot a clear trend in the Pennsylvania map. Central Pennsyvlania shows the strongest shift towards Democrats; more so than the rural regions in either the West or the East of the State. This bodes well for the long-term realignment of Pennylvania; if Democrats can maintain their strength in central Pennsylvania, they'll be able to move the state into the Democratic base, which means winning the Presidency gets much easier
The Good
The Bad
The Ugly
I'm trying to be pessimistic, but the polls keep making it hard. In WA-08 SurveyUSA has Burner-Reichert tied at 49-49, with Burner ahead among those who've already voted, and bad weather likely to dampen turnout. In KY-04, they've got Anne Northup (R) behind 50-45, in a race the National Journal ranks as the 36th most competitive in the nation! With these sorts of indicators, it's hard to envision the "small gains" scenario where Democrats take the House by the thinnest of margins, winning only 16 or 17 seats.
In the Senate, late-breaking polls show Claire McCaskill (D) inching ahead of Jim Talent. And even Harold Ford, Jr. seems to be clawing back into the race against Bob Corker.
My pessimistic prediction was 19 House seats, 4 Senate seats, and 7 or 8 governorships. I'm sticking with that prediction, even though the numbers don't support it, if only to avoid a big letdown tonight.
I didn't do endorsements this year, but it's a pretty straightforward:
I-937 is obviously good policy, in the sense that more clean energy is better than less. So this is really a question of how strongly I will stick to my personal guidelines of voting no.
I can't do it. I cannot bring myself to vote against clean, renewable sources of energy. It's like voting against puppies. Electoral Math recommends a Yes vote on I-937.
Then:
America will never seek a permission slip to defend the security of our country.
Now:
Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki demanded the removal of American checkpoints from the streets of Baghdad on Tuesday, in what appeared to be his latest and boldest gambit in an increasingly tense struggle for more independence from his American protectors ...Mr. Maliki had been under pressure from his Shiite backers to push the Americans to lift an eight-day-old cordon around Sadr City, where American authorities believe the kidnapped American soldier is being held.
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updated by Nicholas Beaudrot on 01:45 15 January 2007
