Reality-BasedTM Political Numbers from Nicholas Beaudrot
Electoral Math
Reality-BasedTM Political Numbers from Nicholas Beaudrot
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January 22nd is the anniversary of Roe v. Wade, establishing a woman's right to choose to end a pregnancy without government interference. Roe, and its less famous companion case Doe v. Bolton, dramatically reduced the ability of state legislatures to force young women to jump through hoops to prove their abortion was "necessary". Since that time, the pro-choice position has largely maintained majority public support in America. More importantly, whenever Roe is directly threatened, such as in 1992 when Clarence Thomas was appointed to the Supreme Court, or 2006 when South Dakota passed an outright ban on all abortions, even those to protect the life of the mother, the anti-choice position tends to lose the debate, even in nominally pro-life states.
Over the past 20 years, the political state of play has remained largely constant. Choice has not been threatened directly, and the two parties argue at the margins about funding and regulations. This is not surprising, considering the fact that public opinion on abortion has remained largely constant over that time period, with a lukewarm pro-choice policy reflecting the opinion of the median voter.
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updated by Nicholas Beaudrot on 11:56 22 January 2007
