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Is It Worth It II

In the last post, we determined the cost of the free time that's wasted spent sitting in traffic. The total cost--if we were to reduce traffic congestion to zero--is $1.7 billion per year, but a more realistic 15% reduction in congestion would be worth a little over $250 million a year, just from the savings in lost time alone.

The cost of Roads and Transit, of course, is much higher, closer to $900 million per year over 20 years. It doesn't look like a good deal, given our current tally of costs and benefits. But have we estimated the value of the benefits accurately?

Well, probably not. So far we've taken a very minimal view of the benefits of reduced congestion. We're only counting the drop in wasted time for commuters who are on the road; we haven't counted any of the benefits that flow to bus & rail commuters. Anyone who uses the new light rail to stop driving to work reaps enormous gains; they save on gas, wear-and-tear, and parking. If you use light rail to commute from Shoreline to downtown Seattle, you're going to drive 5,000 fewer miles a year, which on average will mean almost $3,000 savings (that's twice the 11.7 mile trip from Shoreline to Seattle times 240 days of commuting times the $0.52 per-mile cost of driving). That's a big win. If the "transit" portion of the Roads and Transit package generates 200,000 new transit commuters, or 150,000 should the cost of gas and parking continue to increase, then the transit package pays for itself just with the drop in wasted time and the savings in car operating costs.

In addition, we're taking a rather literal view of the value of free time; we're saying that an hour of free time is worth an hour of wages. But, the value of free time is something of a metaphysical question. For businesses that depend on driving around, congestion costs much more than the hourly wage. And perhaps you personally think of your free time as something that's more valuable than an hour's worth of wages.

There are other considerations that I'm leaving out—replacing the 520 bridgeis crucial for commuters that have to cross the lake; the roads & rail system will last longer than the 20 years of bond payments—but overall, the transit package is a good deal for the city, especially for any family who plans on using the bus & rail system regularly.

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Last updated by Nicholas Beaudrot on 09:03 17 October 2007