It turns out that on the whole, the Roads and Transit deal does not "pencil out", in that the time wasted and gas saved is less than the amount of money spent on new projects, system wide. But if the funding mechanism is sufficiently progressive (and the sales tax, while regressive, is not that regressive ... more on that later), or we're willing to put a premium on our free time, or the lifespan of the roads & trains will be longer than the bonds, then it starts to look like a better deal. But let's try to bring this down to the individual level. If you are voting purely in your self-interest, should you vote for or against Prop 1? First the obvious winners:
You will switch from commuting by car to commuting by bus or rail at least twice a week, even if you keep your car.Vote Yes. You will pay about $125 in new sales tax and maybe $200 in new car tab tax. But you will save thousands of dollars in gas, parking, and wear-and-tear on your car. This one is a no-brainer.
You have (or plan on having) teenage children and want to encourage them to use transit.Vote Yes. Driving kids around, or having them drive themselves around once they turn sixteen, is both expensive and can become a hassle over the years. If you have two kids, and instead of being a three-car or even four-car household, you can get by with just two cars and transit, you come out way ahead as well. This one is also a no-brainer.
You commute across the lake.Vote Yes. Seriously, do you think Seattle, Bellevue, Redmond could operate as a single metropolis with only one bridge? Of course they couldn't. Moving on...
Your drive to work is 50% longer than the average commute.Vote Yes. With a tax burden around $200 for the median wage-earner, a typical commuter who saves 7 hours a year would have to put a premium on their free time in order to justify paying for it. But if you save 10 hours a year, the roads transit package starts to make sense again. According to the census, the average commute time is 26 minutes, so anyone driving more than 40 minutes each way is probably a net winner.
Next, the people who are sort of in the middle:
You're already a transit commuter.Think about it. Perhaps the light rail line will free up more buses to send. Perhaps you just want more transit to get around the city without a car. If any of those are true, then vote yes. If the current bus system fills your needs just fine [and I doubt it does], then vote no.
You plan on using transit occasionally (say, once a week or less for work, or on weekends to get to fun stuff.)Think about it. Suppose you live near Northgate and want to go down to Capitol Hill to party, or head to Pacific Place to watch a movie. Perhaps would be nice not to worry about parking or driving home (especially if you plan on drinking), and the light rail line will make that more pleasant than the current bus system. In strict dollar terms, the break-even point for occasional transit users is somewhere between once or twice a week, depending on how much you have to pay for parking. So if you're a regular party-goer or downtown shopper, this bill is a win. If you're only an occasional party-goer ... well, it depends on how much you value the chance to get drunk without worrying about the drive home.
Your ride is a hooptie/beater/jalopy.Think about it. You may have a low enough tax burden that the 15% reduction in congestion delays makes you a net winner.
Finally, the clear losers.
Your ride is flashy car you can barely afford, and you don't drive 20,000 miles a year.Vote No. Your taxes will go up more than the amount of time you could possibly save.
You have a very short car commute already. Vote No. You won't free up enough time to justify the tax increase. But seriously, how many people in Seattle have short commutes that can't take the bus?
You make more than $60,000, save very little money, and drive only an average amount (10,000 to 12,0000 miles per year).Vote No. You probably won't gain enough free time to make it worth the steep tax hike you'll take. But here's a better piece of advice: if you make more than $60,000 a year, drive an average amount and save very little money, perhaps you might want to start saving more money!
